tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8473537830159724052024-03-14T11:15:38.630+00:00ElectronicLocalElectronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.comBlogger1007125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-68544612638759012152023-08-21T04:19:00.002+01:002023-10-14T02:45:57.578+01:00A Plan..... a Plan.....<p> The last couple of years have created great opportunities for futures traders. The limiting factor for us has always been the amount of capital we have available to trade and the fear of loss of that capital if we trade lots of contracts.</p><p>Top Step Traders started a new industry - the commercialization of funding futures traders. Initially it seemed that the industry was purely designed to profit from futures traders buying the right to prove they were consistently profitable and then failing and paying to try again. That seems to have changed. </p><p>After Top Step we had LeeLoo Trading and more commercialization. The next iteration of trader funding companies was Apex Trader Funding. Apex came to the scene after Darrel Martin, the owner of Apex Investing, became dissatisfied with the rules of LeeLoo Trading who he was using for himself.</p><p>The by-product of Apex entering the trader funding business was the crushing of the fees charged for a trader buying the right to prove he was consistently profitable. A plethora of other companies entered the business. I understand that using any of these companies has some risk to the trader. We rely on them wanting and being able to pay our profit share after we have qualifies for an account that promises to give us a share of the profits. For this reason, choosing which trader funding company to go with requires some investigation and due diligence. But even after that we do have some risk of not getting our profit share at some time in the futures even when the funding company has the best of intentions. This is a business risk for us.</p><p>Having said that, being able to trade size and only risking a relatively small amount to buy the eval account is a winning deal for us.</p><p>So, make a plan. The chart below is one such plan. It uses order flow for entries and has back tested to take profit at 30 ticks in NQ with a stop loss of 45 ticks. The plan calls for stopping trading at a profit of $300 per contract per day and a stop loss of $1,000 per day. These numbers were the result of back testing the plan so the draw down rules of the funding company were not likely to be breached. Remember, every time you put on a trade you are taking on risk. <br /></p><p>The other part of the plan was to open 20 separate accounts with the trader funding company but to only trade about one third of them on any one day so that in the event of catastrophe you are still in the game. As you can see from the chart and pic below There was a profit of about $300 on each of 7 accounts. This is the goal of the plan for each day. As you can also see, there were just 2 trades that happened to be between 88pm and 8.30pm Chicago time and the day was done. With the growth of stock index trading to the Asian time zone it is possible to trade any time zone and still keep a day job until you are ready to go full time. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHZfH3IurFB_JoyOuvLCjeR5njEXDex1fk4It9tSdyN2Npaxucqqv6f4aaNvaTmXxFDXqMhz3NMXiHa0j1pMCM_svsGmgWK5TXARzQ3yeLqUzflYe5N_NR8ncNBCvXHDkTi7ijg6tq5O-lrMaSuP7kS293hmhJlSIlK_bRVcEkbqXu-vS2E3cqJY2S6_I/s189/Blog%2021aug23-2.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="189" data-original-width="74" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHZfH3IurFB_JoyOuvLCjeR5njEXDex1fk4It9tSdyN2Npaxucqqv6f4aaNvaTmXxFDXqMhz3NMXiHa0j1pMCM_svsGmgWK5TXARzQ3yeLqUzflYe5N_NR8ncNBCvXHDkTi7ijg6tq5O-lrMaSuP7kS293hmhJlSIlK_bRVcEkbqXu-vS2E3cqJY2S6_I/w125-h320/Blog%2021aug23-2.PNG" width="125" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdXObvZ0K2EtZLS0c0op4dIyEoV9ZShMs628rQlPF9PbEduL26-6r0AkHpFUNVSS0PUEsDBzV5PPhe08uLJFxPhV6-Oi6RQKUjxH0B7PCv0iflJDMhznvZmJEuBUPfHpq64KF6H7RKAnk9l8tx5VWT4-H2MC6sAhKAFmFML8zRi-_Gcg0lXWz8Iz-pAQM/s2553/Blog%2021aug23.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1438" data-original-width="2553" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdXObvZ0K2EtZLS0c0op4dIyEoV9ZShMs628rQlPF9PbEduL26-6r0AkHpFUNVSS0PUEsDBzV5PPhe08uLJFxPhV6-Oi6RQKUjxH0B7PCv0iflJDMhznvZmJEuBUPfHpq64KF6H7RKAnk9l8tx5VWT4-H2MC6sAhKAFmFML8zRi-_Gcg0lXWz8Iz-pAQM/w400-h225/Blog%2021aug23.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />As you know, waiting for the right setup can sometimes take a while. Using one of the automation tools such as Shark Indicators Bloodhound and Blackbird can ensure that when that setup occurs you do not miss it. This is what I do.<br /><p></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-73256416685870569452023-02-25T21:47:00.000+00:002023-02-25T21:47:14.406+00:00Order Flow, It Gets Even Better!<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> A lifetime ago there was an Abba song we almost sang on the floor: <span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETxmCCsMoD0">Money, Money, Money</a>, While the Abba girls were looking for a "wealthy man", we, on the floor, were making money, money, money and on our way to being wealthy men if we knew how to exploit the fantastic edge we had on the floor.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The point of saying this is that evolution of the technology we have had since the markets went electronic has resulted in an even playing field for all of us electronic locals. No, we can't compete with the big HFTs <u>but we don't need to</u>. We have our own edge. Our edge is that we can use the latest technology to trade with the agility that trading smaller size allows.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Finally, we can throw away all the indicators we used for entries and exits and rely solely on order flow within the context and market structure we can see using the tools that reveal the playing field we are engaged in. The context I need is to know what sort of day we are in: </span></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">trending strongly or rotational</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">where support and resistance is</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">where large players may have business to do</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">where the Mean is that I continually revert to and break away from</span></span></li></ul><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> Much of this information I get from my Market Profile/ Volume Profile chart. Ths information helps me to know the "where". My trading chart focuses on order flow and the Mean. This tells me the "when". When + Where = Trade<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1KbwOsUwy9wINZCZi2Lny42LE0FLw2E1m2uhwgbd4YY3xr17X9YPFsZxE3aKRz0ONtGVvy3gw_Pxvh5V-5weMeXYrumbiCJ1Ty9PlpAtXDRV-c33ZBAhBCKR4UFmAZZCEfO8ihhSLexwWu4pyKK1XT4jpDcDkpHZFCvsP8KqXx_ZJ8tl5lEFPSqza/s3838/Blog%2024Feb2023-0.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2157" data-original-width="3838" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1KbwOsUwy9wINZCZi2Lny42LE0FLw2E1m2uhwgbd4YY3xr17X9YPFsZxE3aKRz0ONtGVvy3gw_Pxvh5V-5weMeXYrumbiCJ1Ty9PlpAtXDRV-c33ZBAhBCKR4UFmAZZCEfO8ihhSLexwWu4pyKK1XT4jpDcDkpHZFCvsP8KqXx_ZJ8tl5lEFPSqza/w400-h225/Blog%2024Feb2023-0.PNG" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chart above is a range chart. No great magic. I often use this periodicity as it gets rid of a lot of noise. I could just as easily use a 1 minute chart or a tick chart. The periodicity of a chart is the microscope that best reveals the order flow. Looking at each tick on a chart is helpful to me. I want to know what the order flow is doing and that is not a single tick but a "flow" of ticks. The ticks can come in fast and furious and the numbers on a footprint chart can change so fast that the eye can't absorb that information. The computer can. Each bar and a series of bars can tell me all that I need to know. The software analyses each bar and series of bars and outputs the information I want using the widgets on the main chart division and with the cumulative volume delta in the division below. The volume profile of the current day on the left side of the chart is the same information I get from the separate Market Profile/ Volume Profile chart I also use.</span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqlQ9hjrY6LRVpCwU-mxuWSnoLlMFeXhHw2ETiB4hjMuUnGCk5DJO3e38yhIiBohFxIUYYQ9Nh8XoZFNIdP7UWBib4gQ-g2qevVkj7kmjT8jPAbyN9bRqaysIyZVgIcfcw8Cgs6AFDYc1kzehAtp1-kqmYTM2q8Ddn3byBjdQfNaYPFAE61XCkD_vB/s1068/Blog%2024Feb2023-4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1068" data-original-width="911" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqlQ9hjrY6LRVpCwU-mxuWSnoLlMFeXhHw2ETiB4hjMuUnGCk5DJO3e38yhIiBohFxIUYYQ9Nh8XoZFNIdP7UWBib4gQ-g2qevVkj7kmjT8jPAbyN9bRqaysIyZVgIcfcw8Cgs6AFDYc1kzehAtp1-kqmYTM2q8Ddn3byBjdQfNaYPFAE61XCkD_vB/w341-h400/Blog%2024Feb2023-4.PNG" width="341" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am a discretionary trader but use the technology to help me not miss trades as well as to enable me to trigger a trade faster. That's what I call Hybrid trading. When the correct context reveals itself, I arm the algo and when all the order flow conditions I have programmed happen, Flo shoots off the order. She also places stop and target orders that I then move to places related to my money management and to support and resistance places.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Weekly, on the week-end, I run Flo in playback mode to get an idea of not only how I performed against pure algo but also to help me with stops and targets metrics. The last two days' pure algo results are below.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAn01W9UQtgFKuICSFCxXrpi0BU1LCTj7gD5T33MsvFP11MGVtpKaZLQrUKyYTKfT_SbzBahLOcZuGv5lQPDos1anycSABFl-fjIUHkqLbWImfvsAQbMoN9zpCop1aGAWaCziOlnG9yzvGi_XmhaqVmv6HdNOo-EmghM3hKWE9EjrbA76OzQSunLwf/s2449/Blog%2024Feb2023-1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1538" data-original-width="2449" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAn01W9UQtgFKuICSFCxXrpi0BU1LCTj7gD5T33MsvFP11MGVtpKaZLQrUKyYTKfT_SbzBahLOcZuGv5lQPDos1anycSABFl-fjIUHkqLbWImfvsAQbMoN9zpCop1aGAWaCziOlnG9yzvGi_XmhaqVmv6HdNOo-EmghM3hKWE9EjrbA76OzQSunLwf/w400-h251/Blog%2024Feb2023-1.PNG" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: small;"><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivZqKT4lawQO0WTQ30JKW0krQXONZnQ9OybYQFSOCxL5l1DoyiPr4jUxQ5wc3tNqCsKBTZw7mt6c2uF--5EKzC-X5Px6cGsZpXWrLNpQwUoZJy6pY1aa1pLYaXpz-naFP1FblwSCLPVkZJH1bnx35H9cTGFg0LtXhV3tQa-bsy-kDaarEen4vk_LXz/s2626/Blog%2024Feb2023-3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1618" data-original-width="2626" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivZqKT4lawQO0WTQ30JKW0krQXONZnQ9OybYQFSOCxL5l1DoyiPr4jUxQ5wc3tNqCsKBTZw7mt6c2uF--5EKzC-X5Px6cGsZpXWrLNpQwUoZJy6pY1aa1pLYaXpz-naFP1FblwSCLPVkZJH1bnx35H9cTGFg0LtXhV3tQa-bsy-kDaarEen4vk_LXz/w400-h246/Blog%2024Feb2023-3.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGAYl7PgFVlMullcIQ0diwXqjDMkCpjv0uG8Au4ZyexBFjx6lvm03OIdEbt8rGM1Umc3xKKPU5e7kyGC1I0UMWu5TQJF_sA7SUUsxam4vCvwWl5IDGEPaO2cyQxMVAMigDK6GmfELY24lGgTw1qD-R1XiII6A77DKdocLo0XEB1NJtVQtFlgMJlYzw/s2515/Blog%2024Feb2023-2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1484" data-original-width="2515" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGAYl7PgFVlMullcIQ0diwXqjDMkCpjv0uG8Au4ZyexBFjx6lvm03OIdEbt8rGM1Umc3xKKPU5e7kyGC1I0UMWu5TQJF_sA7SUUsxam4vCvwWl5IDGEPaO2cyQxMVAMigDK6GmfELY24lGgTw1qD-R1XiII6A77DKdocLo0XEB1NJtVQtFlgMJlYzw/w400-h236/Blog%2024Feb2023-2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>As I have written many times before, the harder I work the luckier I get. This trading business requires continual monitoring nd re-evaluation to keep on the bleeding edge of performance.<br /></p><div><br /><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span><br /></span></div>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-62336177409017265822022-08-16T20:35:00.000+01:002022-08-16T20:35:39.540+01:00Trading the New Normal<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> As these index markets continue to evolve I have found that I need to evolve my technology with them. With the higher volatility markets we have been experiencing there is a need for technology to better reveal the order flow. There is a difference between rotational times of a 24 hour period and a trending or one time frame type of time. For this reason I am using four charts to trade instead of two.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I will give an example from today's ES market. My prime context chart is, of course, still a market/volume profile chart.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-Kif6V05n6Cgb2sC60rX-QdWA7zpVPU2f39dmp8Ry9sWTq4EbfDFtqTh4txG3fH31uWvC_cD_5UD-QqGl1JP_FrzhMSJyfjd3x2ihyeXPI2aehXaR2pWAvIotxZp2Lphel-LkGBhGo4nnzdSPrmuwkV5SauQwCOCURno_CIwED2OU0msfroH2VhcG/s976/Blog16Aug2022-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="976" data-original-width="629" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-Kif6V05n6Cgb2sC60rX-QdWA7zpVPU2f39dmp8Ry9sWTq4EbfDFtqTh4txG3fH31uWvC_cD_5UD-QqGl1JP_FrzhMSJyfjd3x2ihyeXPI2aehXaR2pWAvIotxZp2Lphel-LkGBhGo4nnzdSPrmuwkV5SauQwCOCURno_CIwED2OU0msfroH2VhcG/w258-h400/Blog16Aug2022-2.png" width="258" /> </a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div></span><span style="font-family: verdana;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">MP/VP shows me where I am in the context, support & resistance, and where price is likely to go. The Bookmap chart shows me support and resistance as well as exhaustion, icebergs and spikes.<br /></div></span><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span><p></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1038" data-original-width="1920" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin8hLe64o62RaqMoa2xjuduR9wGojrYxTENFMLZFTwvsp9Bv2T0snF-bPulqb1ElLvX4Bjn7DhqxWPyqi4p1CDcHKQuHFLxuZF1L5xuAKE53o-AuG_L-wXig-c619dUcQm2oi_sV3uAMUHvMVsl0dL0dJW8wYBcWH7MdxjQLXY4ELrFRZoYzidC2iQ/w400-h216/Blog16Aug2022-1.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">The shart below is a renko chart to get rid of noise onto which I have added multiple order flow information using NinjaTrader, Gomi and MZ Pack. This chart is excellent in both rotational and one time frame markets.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhON-Rrv5K2nAp6VKuHHCZS-GjF6yx96epw5mHkjOPETUC5OsXOAnzFVzMGeENxJ03SZKJFoRbmocwWra7HOr8cy-iddbReQiidWLgUixJCEpjthsxFiDElH7HiM72KrbUIwdbjhv1YEOCmWbRuJYwZwCZ-VrsgKSjNyLkUQ5ibN5FhYN5UCqsAyEcJ/s1703/Blog16Aug2022-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1031" data-original-width="1703" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhON-Rrv5K2nAp6VKuHHCZS-GjF6yx96epw5mHkjOPETUC5OsXOAnzFVzMGeENxJ03SZKJFoRbmocwWra7HOr8cy-iddbReQiidWLgUixJCEpjthsxFiDElH7HiM72KrbUIwdbjhv1YEOCmWbRuJYwZwCZ-VrsgKSjNyLkUQ5ibN5FhYN5UCqsAyEcJ/s320/Blog16Aug2022-4.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />Once I have identified a trending market, the chart below using NinjaTrader, Gomi and MZ Pack keeps me in the trade </div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWUEMvhBH-FzPUHValtt6MtKAtyI0Qdx1vZk1Ps5qvdX-Ua3U5pUyjypufgjRdyS5NbrJdqRYIhG9ANQHnzVtiCfVhMYsfQLInwVGHB9wX7x-Bdti1MGZxTVmamQlRghRRNINVtjNsyiKGbYr4_nBZncgWbfyCfSQXZsRZuwoTrL3tR7a-lZwhxpmh/s1699/Blog16Aug2022-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1052" data-original-width="1699" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWUEMvhBH-FzPUHValtt6MtKAtyI0Qdx1vZk1Ps5qvdX-Ua3U5pUyjypufgjRdyS5NbrJdqRYIhG9ANQHnzVtiCfVhMYsfQLInwVGHB9wX7x-Bdti1MGZxTVmamQlRghRRNINVtjNsyiKGbYr4_nBZncgWbfyCfSQXZsRZuwoTrL3tR7a-lZwhxpmh/s320/Blog16Aug2022-3.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /> </span><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-71168519639168632662022-04-21T18:57:00.000+01:002022-04-21T18:57:09.067+01:00I just love trading in the deep pool with the Algos.<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I just love trading in the deep pool with the Algos. They provide the flow and rhythm that helps me make the profitable trades. I do have losers and scratches too but usually its due to a lack of focus or bad read on my part. The information is there for all of us to see.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The pic below is another way of looking at the markets. This a NinjaTrader chart using MZPack's BigTrades add-in. I have found that it really suits me more than Bookmap or Jigsaw. The arrows come from another add-in I have programmed to give me additional order flow metrics. I have tried this chart on more granular settings down to just a few ticks but a 10 tick ES chart is too granular and I lose the context. I find that 30 seconds or 60 seconds provides the best order flow information for me on the ES. For less liquid markets such as NQ, CL and GC, 60 second charts tell me what I need to know. MP is still here for context and bias. Today's high opening and the subsequent selloff to unchanged was a joy.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I just love trading against the algos now. Great liquidity and they do the heavy lifting. Not hard to find where the scalp-able peaks and troughs are. Technology is still evolving and making the markets more even.<br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixs7CiIuRzNxhaEKRc219YspslRh4FeNah6zPUo6uWw2nM2pEWlVcGzlMBRftbpa2QzkRTICZH-_-z_nOkR8LIIZUUTnK7JeyGZF9ydhfPZamAl7YoX4dTHU27CzGYQLd8tAVcXspSGn6tOkG-GbSrBtQrlWpjAhdgfiOVU6O4ivE5lq-_tIAGbAbR/s3840/Blog%20%2021Apr2022.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2160" data-original-width="3840" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixs7CiIuRzNxhaEKRc219YspslRh4FeNah6zPUo6uWw2nM2pEWlVcGzlMBRftbpa2QzkRTICZH-_-z_nOkR8LIIZUUTnK7JeyGZF9ydhfPZamAl7YoX4dTHU27CzGYQLd8tAVcXspSGn6tOkG-GbSrBtQrlWpjAhdgfiOVU6O4ivE5lq-_tIAGbAbR/w400-h225/Blog%20%2021Apr2022.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-78066962116371242862022-04-14T16:32:00.000+01:002022-04-14T16:32:25.698+01:00Money for Nothing?<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> I'm a big fan of Dire Straights and Peter Gabriel so today's title was easy to find. One of my fondest memories is watching Peter Gabriel as guest of Eric Clapton at the Albert Hall in London more than 25 years ago.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The answer to the question in the title is "NO". Making consistent profits trading is definitely not money for nothing. It requires a lot of work and the harder I work the luckier I get π</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Chart below is a piece of ES just after the RTH open. Huge volatility, even more than lately. Price rocketed upwards and then collapsed. The only way I found to trade these volatile periods is Outside In trades - the old way we all traded as locals and fade the "paper". Its a matter of reading the order flow and fading the paper for a mean reversion. I have my finger on the button and click as I see the reversal beginning. Its easier to know which direction the next trade will be in but catching it when price is still flying out from the mean gives a better trade location and less risk. The medicine for being a bit early is doubling down. But I use context to determine where to trade. I keep my size much smaller in these volatile markets as my stops are very, very far away. Stops are only in case of broadband disconnection. Correct trade management cannot be done from an ATM.<br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2WYb7Iu5u-Ur2SzTFElZjeg4ieypu1rJA9PL9Xmnjl7rbMojxLQNXKRUBFnclwJO-X5kKt3uCdRN2GV9XL_0AOuUZAtS3jKxpQAZNWLly27BqTrxtcJnSwQyW5Ek4iIG8w5RMEaU_o0CkZUoseV_XqMRnN306nNa9bYMh3hlnRT91e90TWbl0Xd16/s3519/Blog%2014Apw2022.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2138" data-original-width="3519" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2WYb7Iu5u-Ur2SzTFElZjeg4ieypu1rJA9PL9Xmnjl7rbMojxLQNXKRUBFnclwJO-X5kKt3uCdRN2GV9XL_0AOuUZAtS3jKxpQAZNWLly27BqTrxtcJnSwQyW5Ek4iIG8w5RMEaU_o0CkZUoseV_XqMRnN306nNa9bYMh3hlnRT91e90TWbl0Xd16/w400-h243/Blog%2014Apw2022.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p><p><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-57260389409161994302022-04-10T16:40:00.000+01:002022-04-10T16:40:08.402+01:00Watch as the aggressive buyers come in after a sell off<p> I thought I'd share an example of what the correct tools can show you. This is using <a href="https://www.mzpack.pro/product/mzpack-3-for-ninjatrader-8/" target="_blank">MZPack's BigTrades</a> module. The 5 minute NQ chart using NinjaTrader 8 below shows the sellers hitting the bids all the way until the last sellers get trapped short. Aggressive buyers then come in and push prices back up. I'm not suggesting everyone trade from a 5 minute chart - you need to find the periodicity that suits your style and risk tolerance (the bigger the bars the further from price the stops must be) - each periodicity is able to show the order flow.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihnkQMQB9TUW3yqN8BqT0GP_060qqyAv0Jlj1cGd49CtTx_y2BogxRJVtRO23-5u1BeGsQgrIEo4jgo8e4z-u3PMz4fdhvlMR6Sx4OVN8vQDGZn4fTMBiWBrWkSmEIX88Yg_xd8Rdj1LzyCBVKyiBHK76Kf8z4G1xPt1_Zh2Tg4i8qlgi9PI-yMbE2/s2558/Blog%2010Apr2022.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1431" data-original-width="2558" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihnkQMQB9TUW3yqN8BqT0GP_060qqyAv0Jlj1cGd49CtTx_y2BogxRJVtRO23-5u1BeGsQgrIEo4jgo8e4z-u3PMz4fdhvlMR6Sx4OVN8vQDGZn4fTMBiWBrWkSmEIX88Yg_xd8Rdj1LzyCBVKyiBHK76Kf8z4G1xPt1_Zh2Tg4i8qlgi9PI-yMbE2/w400-h224/Blog%2010Apr2022.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-74696102606168142712022-04-02T16:27:00.000+01:002022-04-02T16:27:26.642+01:00The Tools Have It!<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> I'm really enjoying this extra volatility we have. Lots of opportunity. It's a matter of picking the right market and the right periodicity. There are times when the NQ is too volatile but the ES is good. Traders I know are even switching to the YM to slow the speed. For me, the right bar size seems to be the criteria I look for as the bar size determines my stop loss and risk.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chart below is the 1 minute ES. I liked it very much this week. I switch between the 1 minute and the 30 second bars. The chart below is a footprint chart with lots of additional information highlighted by colouring and arrows. There are a bunch of different providers of these tools and its a matter of hunting around to find the ones that provide the information you want in the form that you can see it easily in the heat of battle. I use three or four different Ninja add-ins to get the information I need for my trading plans. I think that <b>finally</b> I have as much or even more order flow visibility than I had in the pit. The main difference is that there are now no order filling brokers that identify the possible origin of the "paper" we are trading against. But perhaps that's a good thing because we can identify both size and probable icebergs as it happens.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are great tools out there now. Using them is more than well worth the cost if you also learn how to use them. Not hard now. Again, context is very important as is evolving as both markets and tools evolve. Just looking at the chart below shows me the trades jumping out. π I hope you can see them too.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmP3JrUazi1WD0pObixImj7SZfLegs-efDW9SNLV7aJNt-pfs8VQZgbpId5evQKrl9-ml1rHZ2BVogWkqO-7lGtjTDxe_-wIbBzgNSr-YMG7O0QbG43bTif6JPS-G-tRjmTrQfWL7S8KmaU_PtchbnYe0Re2wFzr89tFOJ7qzlcikz_BpG_aCUkON_/s3505/Blog%202Apr2022.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2097" data-original-width="3505" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmP3JrUazi1WD0pObixImj7SZfLegs-efDW9SNLV7aJNt-pfs8VQZgbpId5evQKrl9-ml1rHZ2BVogWkqO-7lGtjTDxe_-wIbBzgNSr-YMG7O0QbG43bTif6JPS-G-tRjmTrQfWL7S8KmaU_PtchbnYe0Re2wFzr89tFOJ7qzlcikz_BpG_aCUkON_/w400-h239/Blog%202Apr2022.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-91021794665837472762022-03-16T19:34:00.000+00:002022-03-16T19:34:14.078+00:00Ultimate Context<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> As you will know if you have been reading this blog since 2009, I have been using Market Profile now for over 35 years. I was fortunate enough to learn it from Pete Steidlmayer not long after he released it at the CBOT. There has been, in recent years, a tendency to abandon Market Profile in favour of Volume Profile. I believe that this is a mistake. Market Profile provides different information to Volume Profile so perhaps the answer is to use both. The attached pic shows fin-alg's add-n to NinjaTrader and is able to display MP with VP underlayed.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The additional information of MP is a result of the TPOs. For example, today we had a perfect example of what some call a neutral day where there was range extension on BOTH sides of the initial balance in the RTH profile of NQ. Old time users remember the trade where, if the fit of the MP is correct, that when the second range extension on the second side happens and there is still time in the RTH session, you wait for the order flow to show the range extension finishing and then make a trade for price to go back to at least the POC. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This easy to see on the MP chart as below - much harder on a VP chart without a bar chart set up to show it. I will never trade without a Market Profile chart.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgBddjZ2xlp3XMTmMGAAIOl6DfdKObnZSbkYVYjdkTJIlkMgCvTF4Fj5goJqBHHSpQyMPY199d9eT2D2bsgULjGt7ypNnG7qvhLwhlTyhQtKenDa-U0Jbskj9k5lZILR9YWTY4qMUv9KXXX63CyAGgc3VRMOYc51BKAhzfpigAKamSPBJ0DGAYkTjf5=s979" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="979" data-original-width="691" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgBddjZ2xlp3XMTmMGAAIOl6DfdKObnZSbkYVYjdkTJIlkMgCvTF4Fj5goJqBHHSpQyMPY199d9eT2D2bsgULjGt7ypNnG7qvhLwhlTyhQtKenDa-U0Jbskj9k5lZILR9YWTY4qMUv9KXXX63CyAGgc3VRMOYc51BKAhzfpigAKamSPBJ0DGAYkTjf5=w452-h640" width="452" /></a></div><br /> As you can see, the second range extension was down and it found support at the high of the previous days profile. Once the buying started it was simply a matter of going long with it and exiting in stages at the different resistance spots.<br /><p></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-65783213496709910642022-03-06T13:59:00.001+00:002022-03-06T13:59:54.359+00:00Nothing Has Changed and Everything Has Changed<p> Nothing has changed and everything has changed in the markets. Looking back every day since the more than 12 years that this blog has been available, this statement has been true. Even more so in these changing times.</p><p>As I have written more than I care to recall, there are only two types of trades: inside out and outside in.</p><p>Inside out are trades with the trend that I try and enter on or with pullbacks - breakouts fail most of the time, and outside in trades which are the mean reversion trades.</p><p>To take these trades I need to identify the direction of the trend as well as where the mean price is. I then need to look at the order flow to time and trigger my trades. I do all this within a Market/Volume Profile context.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjRhUZ_vjvLs4Qv2n5lHXgF-biw9UjAkzM-aL4K6f9k8SdLCTey_STXIagpsjx12zha31NXKMGmCCHzmURS8JurNkitlbm2doZLf_Au5rku9mUaFfrBbrU7OX0XgMxpZ2W966IGGe7vYSGUEsm-4DEFP2c5T1-ojJBlK8Vg--W4TJqYL17N5AwnafmX=s3835" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2157" data-original-width="3835" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjRhUZ_vjvLs4Qv2n5lHXgF-biw9UjAkzM-aL4K6f9k8SdLCTey_STXIagpsjx12zha31NXKMGmCCHzmURS8JurNkitlbm2doZLf_Au5rku9mUaFfrBbrU7OX0XgMxpZ2W966IGGe7vYSGUEsm-4DEFP2c5T1-ojJBlK8Vg--W4TJqYL17N5AwnafmX=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjwAoB2KRz_BZkZ-RG2SGyGaQ9ynTd6kFvebS2RRNj-eD-L2TKGYKzt2ZdoA2DHmXfpY4PKoZ3iFflZCEo8RepKyqJBvaPUfAABUE9xUSD-stYTorFT2FJfIzUvGM0iVBWComBU8F6YZGSwzOMSNdxYUnDzXsRmhjSta-StzJfO6wjS5UzzMHCilsF7=s3838" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2157" data-original-width="3838" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjwAoB2KRz_BZkZ-RG2SGyGaQ9ynTd6kFvebS2RRNj-eD-L2TKGYKzt2ZdoA2DHmXfpY4PKoZ3iFflZCEo8RepKyqJBvaPUfAABUE9xUSD-stYTorFT2FJfIzUvGM0iVBWComBU8F6YZGSwzOMSNdxYUnDzXsRmhjSta-StzJfO6wjS5UzzMHCilsF7=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>These two charts are able to tell the whole story of what "they" are doing. I often add the Cumulative Volume Delta with its own moving average so I can see if the market is long or short. Its then a matter of processing the information and finding the right location for a trade. There are other things that can be added to charts to give you the information you need buy less is more. </p><p>With the extreme volatility we are seeing, trading a bunch of micros for the NQ for the first couple of hours can make scaling out more granular in this volatility. <br /></p><p>The "everything has changed" part of the title to this post really refers to the volatility we are getting.Years ago we were complaining of the drop in volatility now people are complaining of the extreme current volatility. Its our job as traders to adjust to these changes. Not making money is not acceptable. Markets are continually changing and its a matter of sticking to a methodology and making changes to fit the changes. With extreme volatility my stops are far away so my risk is much greater. I balance that with smaller size. That means my trade management has to change also or the math won't work. The three metrics are win rate, average loss and average profit. That formula must come up with a positive expectancy.</p><p>We have the tools, the knowledge and the requirement of discipline in executing a trading plan. I see opportunity not problems in these markets and am enjoying the daily battles. Glad to be a trader :-) Hope you are too.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-54341455911982852412022-01-24T13:31:00.002+00:002022-01-24T13:31:59.982+00:00Experience can just mean making the same mistakes with increasing confidence.<p> Yes, <u><b>experience</b></u> can just mean making the same mistakes with increasing confidence. This seems to be the underlying cause of why instead of CP, traders are consistently <b>un</b>profitable.</p><p>As these markets evolve, I am continually tweaking my trading plan. The basis of what I trade is order flow. We have had the tools to see order flow in the futures markets for some time and I still wonder why the majority of retail traders don't seem to use this information. I look at YouTube and see hundreds if not thousands of videos of people showing how to trade profitably. However, examining many of these ideas I see its mostly making the same mistakes with increasing confidence.</p><p>I spent a day on the week-end just back testing the tweaks that I proposed implementing to my trading plan. Getting very specific information from deep back testing of the recent past gives me the information I need to make changes as the volatility and market rhythms change.</p><p>The big take away for the last months has been that stops have to be further away for my style of trading, especially for the NQ. Had I not moved stops to the second resistance instead of the first and cut my size, I would have had many red days instead of green.</p><p>Chart below is about an hour or so before RTH NQ. I'm done for the day after about 2 hours of trading. My stops were up tp 25 points, not ticks, from entries. I used 30 second bars so I have enough time to make decisions. I also have some automation so I don't need to be so fast.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQs_3y3vrX_9-ZN-bIQ-qLmzIWU30N7MWSG-ITBgupgfJziiFl2a7OSKgEG-2osSt2iutAiLDo6F5dlqdmjSdZnVaw6obUPOOeu_V4WLQcP8gQ_iHRV3pOpp81FpUCQdTHOladN-I6a_87CyrGbsdWKRBxbEFtw-cQ4I_HvjvEpzSsj3krMYj1HC4p=s3499" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2097" data-original-width="3499" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQs_3y3vrX_9-ZN-bIQ-qLmzIWU30N7MWSG-ITBgupgfJziiFl2a7OSKgEG-2osSt2iutAiLDo6F5dlqdmjSdZnVaw6obUPOOeu_V4WLQcP8gQ_iHRV3pOpp81FpUCQdTHOladN-I6a_87CyrGbsdWKRBxbEFtw-cQ4I_HvjvEpzSsj3krMYj1HC4p=w400-h240" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-50686960420389071252021-10-22T00:43:00.000+01:002021-10-22T00:43:14.766+01:00Its Never Been this Simple<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are more people than ever trading today than there has ever been before, The internet is full of people offering THE way to trade profitably, yet, the stats of the percentage of people who learn to trade consistently profitably seems to have stayed at the same low numbers we have seen for 50 years or more.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The sad thing is that this does not have to be like that. We now have the tools for a large percentage of people to lern to trade successfully.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Price will move in the direction traded by the most agressive traders until those agressive traders stop being aggressive or until traders who are more aggressive trade in the opposite direction. By "most agressive traders" I mean volume traded.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Today, there are a plethora of tools available that can identify and measure the direction and strength of the aggression in a liquid auction market. Simplistically, its easy to see in which direction price is moving and easy to see when that movement is running out od steam.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Once we have identified a market move, we then need to identify the areas where this movement might meet some opposite agression.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is all that trading is EXCEPT we need a trading plan and money management plan that decribes in detail how we interact with the other traders in the market,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Pete Steidlmayer is probably the best observer and interpreter of volume, price and time. The invention by him of Market Profile has probably been the greatest gift to traders since trading began. It puts volume, price and time into a measurable and observable structure that allows us to see aggression and order flow clearly. The morphing of Market Profile into Volume Profile has been the next step. Pete's work subsequent to Market Profile has taken his work into the electronic market era.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizQyT6-VtT5rXdxRqvPHDm3n6Pl1jxo5nimSKB94scKkk5msNL3T3IB2ab3wtzD-80hYZa_gEeSU7Wh9G2w4pE3ANTEx8kLnkoDMKKy9onN6dJOBxocM4xLphUTmxt26X7onWqw_1CCkg/s2048/Blog+14Nov2021.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1151" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizQyT6-VtT5rXdxRqvPHDm3n6Pl1jxo5nimSKB94scKkk5msNL3T3IB2ab3wtzD-80hYZa_gEeSU7Wh9G2w4pE3ANTEx8kLnkoDMKKy9onN6dJOBxocM4xLphUTmxt26X7onWqw_1CCkg/w400-h225/Blog+14Nov2021.JPG" width="400" /> </a></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chart above has the type of information I have been talking about. So you see, trading is simple. But still not easy especially if you don't know how to create that trading plan. No activity can be successfully completed without a plan. As <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USfKJYZcUmI" target="_blank">Tatoo</a> always said:" The plan, the plan!"</span> π<br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-28650048797050351432021-10-14T19:01:00.000+01:002021-10-14T19:01:47.157+01:00Battle of the Trader Funding Companies<p> Just a quick post about trader funding companies. Suddenly, there are lots of them out there. Its great for traders as it takes away one of the reasons that so many traders never reach CP (consistent profitability).</p><p>Having said that, trading to "pass" the evaluations to get funded by these companies is not as straight forward as it looks. There are a number of metrics which have to be met as one sees when doing the due dilligence. Meeting these metrics will probably require a change in the way most people manage their trades. One of the metrics is a trailing stop loss on the account. The trailing stop loss on the account trails the tick by tick high water mark of the account. If your trade makes a new high in profit but you close it out at less than that high then the difference will tighten your accounts trailing stop loss. This means that a scalping style is less likely to have you fail the evaluation. If you usually exit on pullbacks in the profit on a trade then the medicine is to lower your size, perhaps even to use micros. The price on doing this is that you may not reach the profit target of the evaluation within the 30 days and have to pay another month of fees to continue. I failed evaluations several times before I worked out how to manage my trades so I can complete an evaluation within the 30 days and not be stopped out.</p><p>The other thing that you should know is that after you pass an evaluation, to get funded, you need to sign a contract wich contains a non disclosure requirement as well as some other conditions from some companies, which I can't disclose, that may not be what you expect. None of the funding companies that I have seen display the contract before you pass the evaluation.</p><p>Having said all that, giving me 90% of the profit I make but zero risk is a great deal, especially if you run mutiple simultaneous accounts. </p><p>Presently, there seems to be a battle between some of the funding companies cutting their eval prices so its a great time to get involved if you want to get funded. Have a good look around and ask questions from them to clarify anything you are not clear on.</p><p>For me, its all about the order flow.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizQyT6-VtT5rXdxRqvPHDm3n6Pl1jxo5nimSKB94scKkk5msNL3T3IB2ab3wtzD-80hYZa_gEeSU7Wh9G2w4pE3ANTEx8kLnkoDMKKy9onN6dJOBxocM4xLphUTmxt26X7onWqw_1CCkg/s2048/Blog+14Nov2021.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1151" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizQyT6-VtT5rXdxRqvPHDm3n6Pl1jxo5nimSKB94scKkk5msNL3T3IB2ab3wtzD-80hYZa_gEeSU7Wh9G2w4pE3ANTEx8kLnkoDMKKy9onN6dJOBxocM4xLphUTmxt26X7onWqw_1CCkg/w400-h225/Blog+14Nov2021.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p><p><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-10539604078690963532021-08-26T18:35:00.002+01:002021-08-26T18:35:47.127+01:00Someone Wacked the Pinjata<p> I had anticipated another tight range day ahead of Powell (FED) talk tomorrow at the virtual Jackson Hole meeting. Not to be. The charts below show how a few of the trades were triggered by the order flow.<br /></p><p>A little after the open a guy started selling an iceberg at 4487.75. I think he sold about 3000 contracts. Here's the chart showing the order flow then. The GREEN support you can see after the iceberg was filled showing that the buyers took all that the iceberg guy had to sell.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJIGCX3JotiiQ4B0S7eArlvShSfwfvtmmxdlsrPS6aBeQ-SWm7CXOEmCrWiHCZobcedmj4ICa7i-rt2Pij4JLCW5_punGOjrJ_962-GuhIizl0P1oF1aDRZRiMQ-1jIPP-uPJpB2FriI8/s2048/Blog+26Aug2021-1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1158" data-original-width="2048" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJIGCX3JotiiQ4B0S7eArlvShSfwfvtmmxdlsrPS6aBeQ-SWm7CXOEmCrWiHCZobcedmj4ICa7i-rt2Pij4JLCW5_punGOjrJ_962-GuhIizl0P1oF1aDRZRiMQ-1jIPP-uPJpB2FriI8/w400-h226/Blog+26Aug2021-1.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p>Price went against him a bit until the market cycled a bit until people got bored. He then seemed to come back and give it a good wack which set off a string of stops. The Bubble shows the wack.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD2DXjyGDUvnXotD1XqK5woOXBePxN380yoyoJAxDi_wfDz5XJQUBXOG4aMkYXvrWJbVd4BFWf52XmphR0qGEowZbVZyE_YRensrYVuM_4aggi-j-Eh7Znh6H-VOqSOo7fvE8fyw5TgWk/s2048/Blog+26Aug2021-2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1151" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD2DXjyGDUvnXotD1XqK5woOXBePxN380yoyoJAxDi_wfDz5XJQUBXOG4aMkYXvrWJbVd4BFWf52XmphR0qGEowZbVZyE_YRensrYVuM_4aggi-j-Eh7Znh6H-VOqSOo7fvE8fyw5TgWk/w400-h225/Blog+26Aug2021-2.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p>The bids were hit hard and stops were triggered and triggered until we ran out of sellers and buyers stepped in.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgT12fZ_MYbTiWSEUPSFN2NIdo0ziWyE-laKTCciJ_hkHlJWzpPIhuMiVD-JSxpgtC4rsAn3gi56uxODls34yvZvOKntKiZiUktVF0m5HwLFCSqNPYN1Hg5oHOnZmgCPXOG1rKf8PrJ-A/s2048/Blog+26Aug2021-3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1154" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgT12fZ_MYbTiWSEUPSFN2NIdo0ziWyE-laKTCciJ_hkHlJWzpPIhuMiVD-JSxpgtC4rsAn3gi56uxODls34yvZvOKntKiZiUktVF0m5HwLFCSqNPYN1Hg5oHOnZmgCPXOG1rKf8PrJ-A/w400-h225/Blog+26Aug2021-3.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p> It got better - we got a retracement to the mean and got two chances to make some more money.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil7b6eQy9t7feSNhl2j0YNCsModkma5QjSL4YRtwR09suRF98j7fnWk7lAQFez2jaGeMxonour43obguOdxt2uqeBkLBniq-p-dcsz5XjY-qIvUX6myFmkNZQpMMX0s1iECiFhQljk4Rw/s2048/Blog+26Aug2021-4.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil7b6eQy9t7feSNhl2j0YNCsModkma5QjSL4YRtwR09suRF98j7fnWk7lAQFez2jaGeMxonour43obguOdxt2uqeBkLBniq-p-dcsz5XjY-qIvUX6myFmkNZQpMMX0s1iECiFhQljk4Rw/w400-h225/Blog+26Aug2021-4.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p>The key to trading these auction markets is to follow order flow and find the areas of support and resistance. The above charts do not show the context apart from where the mean is. I have been using Jigsaw's Auction Vista and Bookmap with their SI add-in that shows stops and some of the icebergs. I struggled to get any extra info from either of them although I really tried. My chart with added context and Market Profile tells me more and everything I need to know.<br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-78737444607816889912021-08-20T16:56:00.000+01:002021-08-20T16:56:04.213+01:00A Clearer Chart for You??<p> There are many ways of setting up an order flow chart. For me, a strictly footprint chart is useless. Looking at all the numbers completely overwhelms me. I'm a very visual person as probably most males are. I need a chart that shows patterns I can identify. </p><p>Below is a chart with the bars grouped into mini volume profiles, each with its own VAH, VAL and POC. Each bar on the chart reveals powerful order flow information to me as do the arrows above or below some of the bars. </p><p>The chart below shows the opening of the ES today. As you can see my chart shows the breakout up and shows me likely continuation upwards from the breakout point. The long trade triggers at the close of the 09:45 (EST) bar and can be automated so it triggers right on the close of that bar with that order flow information.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8gZVUUqNOqtc2w3LWsv3RmdawV9Jw3y9QbVkXk2uPhXOqsXEGnVPUw2OGGKRQXwfK3MGxXoXm1YCa2ItL1Hb_mmnTYMDJ2OyGTftUklpRnszFdl98NZklUwIRVeFo_01m4vOGYCDilT4/s2048/Blog+20Aug2021.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1204" data-original-width="2048" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8gZVUUqNOqtc2w3LWsv3RmdawV9Jw3y9QbVkXk2uPhXOqsXEGnVPUw2OGGKRQXwfK3MGxXoXm1YCa2ItL1Hb_mmnTYMDJ2OyGTftUklpRnszFdl98NZklUwIRVeFo_01m4vOGYCDilT4/w400-h235/Blog+20Aug2021.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>I teach students to use the chart that shows them the order flow most clearly. I have a number of templates but one size does not fit all. You know the old saying: "None so blind than those that cannot see".<br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-45892575107551042402021-08-18T18:51:00.003+01:002021-08-18T18:51:54.431+01:00Bubble Trade in Crude<p> </p><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
I trade three types of trades. Let me list them.</p>
<ol><li><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">Breakout/Pullback Trade β
start of a new trend (may be a short trend)</p>
</li><li><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">FavFib Tradeβ
reversal β outside in trade</p>
</li><li><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">Bubble Trade β
this needs MZpack</p>
</li></ol>
<p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br />
</p>
<p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">Each trade has a
couple of defined ways of triggering. </p><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">The chart below shows a Bubble Trade. I have configured MZpack to find the trade and use Gomi to help trigger it. Its just order flow and those two apps to NinjaTrader give me the information to trigger it. I also Use SharkIndicators to monitor and sometimes to trigger it after I arm it when the context is right. </p><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">Crude is a good market for me nowadays and moves well directionally. The chart below shows the bubble after the weekly inventory report. A couple of minutes in you can see the first blue arrow up which was the entry. The exit was the mean at the red line. These Bubble Trades repeat in several times a day, not just after a report. You will see a couple of other good trades on that same chart. My goal is to trade just up to two hours a day to make a daily profit target, not to sit there all day.<br /></p><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDKgfBniVFK93Nq5KrfwhaF4KyETpUfSdrMlEdrrns-BcTHyrBYYqw1dY5U_0I06Up8XH55HJmI9DMx9ug7cYxhXlzpPIBdbHdoa4mZ3fDcGKxv5ytSKRSuwf4pgUviw7cCUfXd3zBZ68/s2048/Blog+18Aug2021.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1202" data-original-width="2048" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDKgfBniVFK93Nq5KrfwhaF4KyETpUfSdrMlEdrrns-BcTHyrBYYqw1dY5U_0I06Up8XH55HJmI9DMx9ug7cYxhXlzpPIBdbHdoa4mZ3fDcGKxv5ytSKRSuwf4pgUviw7cCUfXd3zBZ68/w400-h235/Blog+18Aug2021.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p>
Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-46005017411975499492021-08-11T18:34:00.000+01:002021-08-11T18:34:07.944+01:00Context is King<p> <span style="font-family: verdana;">Those of you who have been reading this blog for a while, especially those that have had learned from me personally, know that I have things I call "trade pictures". </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A trade picture is what a chart has to look like for there to be a trade.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Today in the ES we had two pictures that happened almost into one trade.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk5FYe9nPKQ7DoLCsEW8Rt39jlwCSjsqhyphenhyphenEPK81nE196yVPeScyObOHl9ie1Ml4pdeTg377L3DCVhmn2cmnIoJgtaHNcoASRhQA9YiBmhJCzA9zEsF2Cl-CQtpEOaIC72wWh4MXbpbFyQ/s1009/Bloh+11Aug2021.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1009" data-original-width="876" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk5FYe9nPKQ7DoLCsEW8Rt39jlwCSjsqhyphenhyphenEPK81nE196yVPeScyObOHl9ie1Ml4pdeTg377L3DCVhmn2cmnIoJgtaHNcoASRhQA9YiBmhJCzA9zEsF2Cl-CQtpEOaIC72wWh4MXbpbFyQ/w348-h400/Bloh+11Aug2021.JPG" width="348" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chart above is a simple Market Profile chart of the ES RTH. The red "0" is the open and is the area where my Open Mean Reversion picture was triggered. The trigger was the order flow I read on my bar chart like the one in my previous post. I was waiting to see the order flow as the ES RTH session opened as I was looking to sell based on the order flow and context in the minutes before. You can look on any low periodicity bar chart and draw in the mean and see how this trade worked.The second trade is my VAH - VAL trade. It is triggered by order flow and context as price is accepted into the previous value area with correct order flow and context.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The other part of the trades was the trade management. Stops, Targets, Scaling in and out, Doubling down id necessary. Scaling out allowed the second trade to be profitable even though it did not hit its profit target of VAL. <br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">August has been lower volatility but trades have presented themselves non the less. I also trade CL where there have been some nice trades too.I'm planning on showing some of those if the markets co-operate.</span><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-64194171658815311642021-08-10T16:36:00.000+01:002021-08-10T16:36:09.697+01:00Daily Prep and 2 trades and done for the day<div><p> We are deep in August summer markets in the indices. But there are still good trades available with a bit of patience and the right trading plan.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9lsFnHDtuCEOBqci1AUlRAI3upw7FzyiohH0xAgJd7dh6mV-4ljQ5O4VTsN-iuLehVBbnVfHrCDVgDaetuUnJhUP4a7YJes0B9-bC82e-5ox8UIVEYUgsFQpOgYHBFbjVWVH0h2KxmRs/s2048/Blog+10Aug2021.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1262" data-original-width="2048" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9lsFnHDtuCEOBqci1AUlRAI3upw7FzyiohH0xAgJd7dh6mV-4ljQ5O4VTsN-iuLehVBbnVfHrCDVgDaetuUnJhUP4a7YJes0B9-bC82e-5ox8UIVEYUgsFQpOgYHBFbjVWVH0h2KxmRs/w400-h246/Blog+10Aug2021.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /></div><p>I've annotated the places I want to talk about. The chart has some extra training wheels to help with trend identification if you need it.</p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>from early morning you can see from the cumulative delta that there was buying accumulation going on. My daily prep resulted in me thinking we were going to break up out of the RTH Market Profile of yesterday. The overnight ETH MP had significantly tested the lows of ETH/RTH of yesterday.<br /></li><li>this is the breakout. The MZpack bubble shows the high vol as it took out the high of the setup bar. It did close down but that was an opportunity to buy a few ticks better,</li><li>this was the climax where stops were hit and a good place to exit. We had yet to test the breakout.</li><li>nice outside in reversal as strong order flow to the downside showed itself.</li><li>exit hare at the mean to which we had reversed.</li></ol><div>Again, 2 trades and done for the day.</div>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-36311417835889613452021-08-09T15:04:00.001+01:002021-08-09T15:04:45.458+01:00Just Done for the Day<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> It doesn't take long to be done for the day.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have a daily profit target and hope to make it in three trades or less. Two trades today. Each time I trade it is taking on risk. My trading plan is also a business plan. Business plan can start with small size - even micros - and increase size as account grows rather than sit in front of the workstation for more hours.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpGnUhTnM7-KQs2pzb3jAC8AAV0-fTH7I3xkgoYFZ5ZP37Z2QtOcwRK2TnmOOr4Yo9WtBie8p-rQeqwaHVYayoestdon4rJaBYsfu0bhemvo1pR0nBIxSKNxYGcclBoJHXulRo_LsmmSI/s2048/Blog+9Aug2021.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1274" data-original-width="2048" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpGnUhTnM7-KQs2pzb3jAC8AAV0-fTH7I3xkgoYFZ5ZP37Z2QtOcwRK2TnmOOr4Yo9WtBie8p-rQeqwaHVYayoestdon4rJaBYsfu0bhemvo1pR0nBIxSKNxYGcclBoJHXulRo_LsmmSI/w400-h249/Blog+9Aug2021.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">Identify whether trend or countertrend trade. Wait for oorder flow to show strength in direction. Trigger trade</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-27481720748493172532021-08-08T19:49:00.002+01:002021-08-08T19:49:30.390+01:00Two Trades and Done for the Day in an Hour<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Its quite frustrating for traders who can sit down and perfectly mark up a chart with all the profitable entries and exits "in accordance with their trading plan". Yet when they are trading live at the right edge of their chart they cannot find those same entries. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Why is it so!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> I wrote that with an exclamation mark, not a question mark as I believe I know why this is so. I have been working on this post for a while as an answer to questions I have been asked as the electronic trading evolution marched on.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The short answer to is three fold including:</span></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Order flow was not really tracked</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Context was ignored or not complete </span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There was not a detailed clear trading plan</span></span></li></ol><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Let me clearly say that it is order flw that makes markets move directionally and if you want to be able to consistently track and anticipate the moves then <u><b>reading order flow is a must.</b></u> This is what I have been doing for years. Earlier on, before the technology advanced, I had to use indicators as a proxy for the footprints of order flow. No longer. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">My chart today is designed and configured to show me more information about order flow than I had standing in the pit. This is pretty radical as it means that competent order flow reading traders are now the true electronic locals of futures trading. <b><u>We all can be</u></b>.</span> <br /></span></p><div><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have been trading since the 1960s and have watched the markets evolve over all those years. I went down to the floor in 1985 as a local trading my own money and really learned how the markets work.</span></p><p><b><u><span style="font-family: verdana;">The basics of what moves price has never changed and never will.</span></u></b></p><p><b><span style="font-family: verdana;">If the buyers are more aggressive the price goes up and if the sellers are more aggressive the price goes down. </span></b><span style="font-family: verdana;">Price keeps on moving until the aggression stops, meets equal opposite aggression or reverses. We do have passive aggression and these are called icebergs.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now all that sounds real easy to trade. The issue is that you have to be able to see the order flow and see it in a context that allows you to understand what is happening and what is <u><b>likely</b></u> to happen for the next x minutes or points.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I started off trading using the seat of my pants - guessing. Once I saw that wasn't going to work I moved to bar charts. From there, I discovered <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CompuTrac" target="_blank">Tim Slater and CompuTrac.</a> This was the start of my road of technical analysis. Then I met Pete Steidlmayer and Market Profile. Market Profile was the beginning of my understanding of context. Order flow without context can be ambiguous. Is a move likely to continue and how far! Then be had Footprint charts from Trevor Harnett of MarketDelta (later improved by various traders, especially Gomi, and ported into platforms such as NinjaTrader). The next development came from Peter Davies of Jigsaw Trading was a very different DOM which then brought us to today: Heatmaps and Iceberg order detection. Then there is <a href="https://www.mzpack.pro/" target="_blank">MZpack</a>. Probably the most feature rich order flow add-in to NinjaTrader that exists today and which makes available the possible implimentation of all the latest technologies for reading order flow.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Today, I have a more complete view of order flow than I used to have standing in a pit on the floor. So can you. Its a matter of putting together a suite of tools that provides a complex view of order flow within a complete picture of the complex.<br /></span><b><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: verdana;">In my next post I will take this much further and provide details of what is needed to be able to trade and follow order flow with the tools I use. In the movie Trading Places, I'm now with the character that believes anyone can be taught to trade. We have the tools: all we need is the right detailed trading plan and the discipline to stick to it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u><b>What to Look for in Order Flow</b></u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This exprssion, "order flow" can mean different things to different people. For me, I look for the strength and the direction of the aggressive traders in the context where those trades occur in order to determine whether that order flow will resultin continuation or reversal. The context that I am looking at includes, but is not limited to, support and resistance and Market/Volume Profile information. Looking at a footprint chart and seeing what has traded at the bid and ask is meaningless unless you see both the context and understand what that order flow in that context is telling you. This is what I am teaching to students now. This is, I believe, what traders need to know in order to be consistently profitable in today's and tomorrow's markets.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u><b> Two Trades in the First Hour or so</b></u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u><b> </b></u></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_4pZ6boaz_1OesrEoG7iPVLcRPAXXChzUsr-WtFmzDpU2J9RUmF-iBApicCqSmSDJkAtaDyh17Y0bpysgQlKXf8ddIQGb2D8F-Eg-efs7Ff8IJpJHP6sqQ5GF66GQmXEWCIfvq2wzRM/s2048/Blog+8Aug2021.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1151" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_4pZ6boaz_1OesrEoG7iPVLcRPAXXChzUsr-WtFmzDpU2J9RUmF-iBApicCqSmSDJkAtaDyh17Y0bpysgQlKXf8ddIQGb2D8F-Eg-efs7Ff8IJpJHP6sqQ5GF66GQmXEWCIfvq2wzRM/w400-h225/Blog+8Aug2021.JPG" width="400" /> </a></b></u></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u><b> </b></u></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div></b></u></span><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chart above is a basic order flow chart. The bars are MZpack add-ons and the arrows are from Gomi. The dots on the bars show order flow info I have configured it to show. The green stripes are from Sharkindicators' Bloodhound and highlight areas where I can look for long trend trades. This is all discretionary rule based trading. By "rule based" I mean that there is a detailed trading plan that contains the pictures I want to trade. BTW, I had seen MZpack a while ago but came back to it after a student recently chose it for himself. It's functionality now is very comprehensive and I would recommend it to everyone wanting to trade with order flow. <u><b><br /></b></u><br /></span><p></p></div>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-33291590699873134712021-07-27T11:10:00.002+01:002021-07-27T11:15:26.316+01:00No Brainer - What a Gift!<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sometimes the trading gods give you a gift but you have to be aware to accept it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Market Profile has continued to be one of my trading tools. It provides context, direction, support, resistance and often a lot more.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chart below shows the shelf that broke in "W" period providing a great trade down. It looks like a large iceberg held the market and after it was filled it became a what I call a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98qw86DsdZ0" target="_blank">Down Gleeson trade</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMn8YT_RCIHTcixj48tAecgDP9RBtxRrz5DRSjAbqiScCNGnu4ky5egKtxGeu8G6Ut7qESjYhjhkvcRXVTUwfcaz-IQTtN5TC5H624emdCR2nbQAyFFBC0FlaAN3_mQ7aqzLYHliW9R9c/s2048/Blog+27Jul2021.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1445" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMn8YT_RCIHTcixj48tAecgDP9RBtxRrz5DRSjAbqiScCNGnu4ky5egKtxGeu8G6Ut7qESjYhjhkvcRXVTUwfcaz-IQTtN5TC5H624emdCR2nbQAyFFBC0FlaAN3_mQ7aqzLYHliW9R9c/w283-h400/Blog+27Jul2021.JPG" width="283" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-79619811795745660282021-03-07T16:51:00.000+00:002021-03-07T16:51:20.485+00:00Where's the Trigger?<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Years ago, in the United States, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug75diEyiA0" target="_blank">there was an add for Wendys, the hamburger fast food place</a>. The idea was if there was no beef then there was no hamburger. I often think of this ad when I'm trading.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Its critical to know what the trigger for a trade is when you are building a trading plan. The go or no-go! No trigger, no trade. The trigger is what gets you into a trade. The trigger, from my point of view, must be context sensitive. A breakout upwards, at, say, the low of the day may have a different significance to a breakout at the high of the day. I might buy the first but sell the second. What I am advocating is to create the trigger in a trading plan but also describe the context in which it is both valid and invalid. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6CQxjrP6CYeF9fCH0O8Wb2RsPZDvS8knnNorI9E1-6tTc-38DoStZfv4ZfGljQOOkcCf6c6VgbS_-6iTTBosCJbHiabqDGLlS4ik069kVXWDlxHiEsTRpeTlI_v4WSyIRnPizv-qinFE/s2048/Blog+7Mar2021.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1153" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6CQxjrP6CYeF9fCH0O8Wb2RsPZDvS8knnNorI9E1-6tTc-38DoStZfv4ZfGljQOOkcCf6c6VgbS_-6iTTBosCJbHiabqDGLlS4ik069kVXWDlxHiEsTRpeTlI_v4WSyIRnPizv-qinFE/w400-h225/Blog+7Mar2021.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br />As you might see in the chart above, I have an app that alows me to trade hybrid - semi-automatically. I wait for the context to be right and then arm the app to send out the market order when the trigger conditions have been met. My trigger conditions are order flow related while the context is a lot of other things.the line in the middle of the chart is the average of the mean price and is the centre of value at that time. <br /><p></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-89287932827258914902021-02-10T21:44:00.001+00:002021-02-10T21:44:28.435+00:00Trading Order Flow with Flo - Automation can be profitable<p>I have been working with trade automation since the early 1980s as you will know if you have been a regular reader of this blog. </p><p>As the markets changed, full automation became more and more of a challenge. Re-optimizing monthly became weekly and optimizing weekly became optimizing daily. Once it came to optimizing daily the algos became less stable due to the volatility fluctuations and also impossible to share due to the time constraints. </p><p>There had to be a better way. And there was.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCLa_qyu_tnxUkx8yft0mi2ji1O-bdD5f6TEHHRkhvkHmdIeLqjA7DrAsy5P1nq-I0_AODsiKx8UEXysQF1un4ly8fK7pwyumGlhgLaWMmXVTpD2aQymjUD0z22K24iPVL8n4gAU8bV8o/s2048/Blog+10Feb21-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1179" data-original-width="2048" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCLa_qyu_tnxUkx8yft0mi2ji1O-bdD5f6TEHHRkhvkHmdIeLqjA7DrAsy5P1nq-I0_AODsiKx8UEXysQF1un4ly8fK7pwyumGlhgLaWMmXVTpD2aQymjUD0z22K24iPVL8n4gAU8bV8o/w400-h230/Blog+10Feb21-1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>If you click on the chart above and you enlarge it you will see Flo's fully automated trades today. I was out getting my Covid vaccination and happily could not interfere πππ The ELgo that Flo uses is never optimized, ever. Its just trading order flow. The chart used the LogikUltimateRenko bars to get rid of th noise. Renko bars are very difficult to backtest so one needs to be very careful in algo development as you can easily fool yourself that something terrible is profitable.</p><p>Here's the Strategy Performance Report for today trading just one contract of the front month NQ.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Y2KUTBN1B_IAUW5zFBJEN50iZ8jmEVkbih5dUjiZC-MMk4-Hqfdwkmy0fmT3tjLOGrPlpGzJAtiWPfncwqmo79V5AjXy8f0no4hUooHoYMGTKyH8wpyz7nBKXr8JrzCFZKDc-mf-uwE/s2569/Blog+10Feb21-2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1224" data-original-width="2569" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Y2KUTBN1B_IAUW5zFBJEN50iZ8jmEVkbih5dUjiZC-MMk4-Hqfdwkmy0fmT3tjLOGrPlpGzJAtiWPfncwqmo79V5AjXy8f0no4hUooHoYMGTKyH8wpyz7nBKXr8JrzCFZKDc-mf-uwE/w400-h190/Blog+10Feb21-2.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>NinjaTrader now has a more granular strategy reporting system. You can break down the strategy report into much smaller chunks as small as 30 minutes. The pic below shows every hour for today.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicG28h3OiDd2IB9d1u9Sehdab9Bt1n0zakL75gL6XkRDoymuM9992En-sIwwbYAuypclvzeDoqcqbXQFApKU78KMzZ_mfQPnwDghMvLBEU-Mwq-Wu18IP3sZZU3WEAPihbIXd6A9S4Zcg/s2048/Blog+10Feb21-3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1129" data-original-width="2048" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicG28h3OiDd2IB9d1u9Sehdab9Bt1n0zakL75gL6XkRDoymuM9992En-sIwwbYAuypclvzeDoqcqbXQFApKU78KMzZ_mfQPnwDghMvLBEU-Mwq-Wu18IP3sZZU3WEAPihbIXd6A9S4Zcg/w400-h220/Blog+10Feb21-3.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>Interestingly, it shows that I would have made even more profit had I stopped trading after the first hour and a half of the RTH session. Problem is that you cannot know in advance how the day will unfold. Having said that, if you monitor you algo while it is trading automatically there is quite a lot you can do to know when to stop trading for the day. Markets that open away from the previous day's close create a need for people to do something as the market is out of balance. Using that and Market Profile I make decisions when to stop for the day. On days when I am not there, like today, I am still confident that Flo can handle the day well enough. As time goes by I intend to add that contextual info into Flo so she will be able to stop trading for the day when conditions and context say so.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-21694841074761320002020-11-15T16:29:00.001+00:002020-12-02T12:19:19.236+00:00Steps to Achieve Your Goals<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> Do you really need any indicators when it's all about order flow?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> <b><u>MUST HAVES FOR ME</u></b><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Step 1: The chart below only has one indicator: a line, that for me, defines the mean - a smoothed 66 WMA.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Step 2: Figure out what I want to see in the order flow and configure my indicators so I can see when when those events appear.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Step 3: Write out my trading plan that defines the setup or trigger bars that are required for me to enter a trade. </span></p><p><u><b><span style="font-family: verdana;">GOOD TO HAVE </span></b></u></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A. As I am often more than 100ms away from Rithmic or CQG or IB which fill my orders, I have a colocated dedicated server that hosts my platforms. A VPS is second choice if price matters.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">B. <a href="https://www.sharkindicators.com/" target="_blank">Shark Indicators</a> to semi automate my trading - Hybrid Trading. This gives me speed of entry. As the context meets my requirements, I arm my </span><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://www.sharkindicators.com/" target="_blank">Shark Indicators</a> by a single click and when the setup trigger appears my order shoots out. My current setup has almost no slippage. My server is running a Ryzen 9 CPU and I am close to where the orders fly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u><b>THE TRADES</b></u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have a line that is the Mean. That same line shows the trend of the chart of my periodicity. The attached chart has the free Renko from Ninza. It gets rid of a lot of noise while being true with the order flow.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I can have only these 5 positions in relation to the mean:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Above the mean in an uptrend</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Above the mean in a downtrend</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Below the mean in a downtrend</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Below the mean in an uptrend</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Chopping around the mean in a sideways market </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I can have only two types of trades from any one of those 5 positions:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Outside in (against the trend)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Inside out (with the trend) </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Order flow in context defines when<br /> and which trade I make in accordance with my very specific trading plan.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_D8a22BdmoN4exqKGjorODzsO_1yHimX1jUFKqtc_9zxKU-zM0YPOB0H6Ehu7-DHzYqj720AjdBJt5uye3rLWBNdPtcNi8fkcdvMT4fH2K8XsK0BSjxrgRf8Ez8LJJlusY-8pr3X6MkY/s2048/Blog+15Nov2020.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1143" data-original-width="2048" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_D8a22BdmoN4exqKGjorODzsO_1yHimX1jUFKqtc_9zxKU-zM0YPOB0H6Ehu7-DHzYqj720AjdBJt5uye3rLWBNdPtcNi8fkcdvMT4fH2K8XsK0BSjxrgRf8Ez8LJJlusY-8pr3X6MkY/w400-h224/Blog+15Nov2020.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><u><b><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></b></u></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-79710684788882046732020-11-14T17:32:00.000+00:002020-11-14T17:32:30.903+00:00Trading the Order Flow with the Latest Technology<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span>The lock down for these terrible Covid times had one good by-product: I spent the time upgrading all my tools.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span>If you have been reading the blog for a while you will have seen that I have been a great proponent of HYBRID trading. Hybrid trading is the part automation of the trading process. I do this by programming my entry rules into a variety of discrete "buttons" so that when I see that the context is right for a particular entry type that I call " a picture", I arm the "button" so that the computer triggers the trade when all the conditions have been met. I get even faster fills as I run on my own private server right next to the Exchange.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span> The picture below uses NinjaTrader 8 to which I have added </span><span><a href="https://www.sharkindicators.com/" target="_blank"> Bloodhound from Sharkindicators</a> to a chart with order flow from <a href="https://www.gomicators.com/" target="_blank">Gomi</a>. The Gomi indicator set has a number of programmable indicators that create signals shown by the arrows I have on my chart. These signals can be captured in Sharkindicators' Raven which is an automated strategy envelope and placed as trades with a broker. The rules I can put into those signals (without programming knowledge or requirement) are virtually limitless and as complex and specific as I want to make them.<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span>As you can see from the Shark chart trader, these signals from Raven can be turned on and off with a single click ising the ENABLE/ DISABLE button. Even more importantly, I can pick the pictures (signals) I want to trade from the drop-down you can see at the top of the chart. I can pick both entries and exits ahead of time when the context says OK and have the computer enter the trades when the setup bar appears that matches with my trading plan. My job is to watch the context and pick the types of entries and exits from the drop-down that will provide the highest probability trades.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span>My goal is to make, say, 10 ticks per contract per trade about 5 to 10 times a session.<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span>The idea behind what I am showing is that there are lots of new tools out there. Some clever people have devised some clever things. However, I, as a trader needed to make a trading plan and use the tools to make them fit my own way of trading the specific trades I want to make and wrap a good money management plan around them. </span></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8XHJBPSLOVHZ-YKtgdsCsBwUDa6IEOMNaOi1mefCARJF8oPSfcDpg6KsHSn93OG7iSR9PcAQDXcOLCia1W9UOOfVvWW_oQH_gtsaFuo5-CWNeI_ZIL48bEsJikO2Efr5Ekqa5ai5tFs4/s2048/Blog+14Nov2020.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1238" data-original-width="2048" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8XHJBPSLOVHZ-YKtgdsCsBwUDa6IEOMNaOi1mefCARJF8oPSfcDpg6KsHSn93OG7iSR9PcAQDXcOLCia1W9UOOfVvWW_oQH_gtsaFuo5-CWNeI_ZIL48bEsJikO2Efr5Ekqa5ai5tFs4/w400-h241/Blog+14Nov2020.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span><p></p>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-847353783015972405.post-35485721204223146962020-07-31T18:39:00.001+01:002020-07-31T18:39:43.562+01:00Micro ES and Orderflow Trading<div>I've been looking at the relatively new micro ES contract. Its volume has now reached a level where its very very liquid. If you have been reading the blog then you know that one of my trading styles is to put the position on and then scale out as the trade goes in my favour. The converse of that is that I double down, sometimes more than once, <b><u>when the trade is still valid</u></b> but goes against me.</div><div><br /></div><div>With the extreme volatility we have with the ES, these scaling in and scaling out with these larger number of contracts has become more difficult as:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Stop losses can be further away from entry price</li><li>Higher margins</li></ul><div>The "medicine" for these issues is the micro ES. Same as the regular ES except $5 a point instead of $50 a point.</div><div><br /></div><div>Taking an initial position of only 1 ES contract means you cannot scale out. Doubling down twice gives you 4 contracts, still not a lot to scale out. However, an initial 10 lot of the MES (micro ES) provides the flexibility needed to trade this style.</div><div><br /></div><div>Had you entered the trade on my multi Volume Profile orderflow chart at the break at 3233.00 with a 10 lot MES position, you were able to take half of the position off at your first usual target and still have 5 scale outs left to trade until the swing was over.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFFIvTWs7zfM0I6P5q5-5D0WPkwTKcWCdJVvJsfmUp4J87cCPB-ErMTeOCB72pPOHeJusNvHVUriSb3KQMGFjZnplJd9awM6R7rdSXLTVfR4-KVYkCUdP-dQnoAspLqeQ8vm4VOCTJWMI/s2048/Blog+31July2020.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1153" data-original-width="2048" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFFIvTWs7zfM0I6P5q5-5D0WPkwTKcWCdJVvJsfmUp4J87cCPB-ErMTeOCB72pPOHeJusNvHVUriSb3KQMGFjZnplJd9awM6R7rdSXLTVfR4-KVYkCUdP-dQnoAspLqeQ8vm4VOCTJWMI/w512-h288/Blog+31July2020.JPG" width="512" /></a></div><div><br /></div></div>Electronic Localhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10539999419310383613noreply@blogger.com2