Thursday, 22 July 2010

Bias? What Bias?

The last few days in the ES have been rock n' roll. Up then down and then up again. Sometimes in the same day. Handling these changes is an important part of getting to CP.

During training, we go through an envisioning process to get a bias of how to trade. However, our vision is always subject to alteration. Its the market speaking its the only one that is right. We are really just a speck in the mass of the market's participants .

What we do is a multi look at what is/has happened at key times of a 24 hour day.

When the market closes, 4.15pm NY time, we have a look at the profile and how the market finished and create a vision of where we expect the top and bottom of the next day to be, the next day starting at 4.30pm NY time.

I sleep for the next 8 hours and when I wake up and get ready for the FESX (ET) open for 8am German time, I have another look at what happened during my night in the Asian time zone. This can sometimes be very significant. From this information, we make an adjustment to the vision. Always looking what the potential top and bottom of the range will be. What a Market Profile of the period might look like.

This takes us up to the pre-RTH period. We now have another 6 hours of trading to evaluate and revisit our vision, as before, and making the appropriate adjustments to our expectations of the potential range and expected Market Profile.

All this enables us to trade in the direction of the expected movement and to also have areas where we can try and anticipate a stop to the vertical Profile development so we can turn our direction around.

We re-evaluate the market at the close of every bar as a part of our regular SOP (standard operating procedure).

You didn't have to make many trades today to be very GREEN.

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