Great Expectations

Charles Dickens wrote about it. Traders ponder about it. What profitability should I expect from my trading?

One of the first times I met Pete Steidlmayer, the inventor of Market Profile, he spoke about the three main stages of a trader's development:

1. Losing Trader - Buying the Highs and Selling the Lows
2. Break Even Trader - Buying High and Selling High, Buying Low and Selling Low
3. Profitable Trader - Buying the Lows and Selling the Highs

It's then a matter of how long it takes to progress from stage #1 to stage #3 and whether the trader has the financial juice to get through the non profitable period.

I have students who are progressing along this same path in SIM. They still have a job and spend all their non working time trading SIM, very seriously, in order to get to CP (consistent profitability) so they can then solve the only remaining issue - the transition from SIM to risking real money, all while they have a steady income stream from a job.

This requires a huge amount of dedication and effort and sacrifice, but they have decided that the end is worth it - CP without major financial risk.

I recommend this approach to everyone.

Today the ES was already up in orbit when I woke up 6am London time. I had to be very patient to find good entry points. It was really trade #2 that I loaded up on and at trade #3 I was still long, but bought back what I had scaled out.