Saturday, 30 June 2018

Day Time or Night Time is Always the Right Time

I remember as a child an ad that ran in Sydney: "Day Time or Night Time is Always the Right Time, for a cup of Bushells' tea".

Well, the emini ES is that cup of Bushells tea. Its an almost 24 x 6 market that has opportunities whenever you sit down in front of your workstation. 

As the Chinese and other Asians discovered day trading and the algos found volume during that 24 x 6, the old RTH are not the only times that there is money to be made. As Pete Steidlmayer said, using market Profile in the old 1980s way is not very helpful in the 21st century. With the technology available today and live volume 24 x 6, the tools have changed. Everyone can be an electronic local. We have the edge.As Frankie Lane sang, "Move 'em on, head 'em up, Cut 'em out, ride 'em in, rawhide"

If anyone has a couple of hours in any time zone its rare not to find profitable trades if you "follow the money". Its the same as always if you go back almost 10 years since this blog began what are "they" doing? The "they" of course id the order flow. 

The chart below id the closing hours of the ES on Friday, 29th June 2018. The left of the chart shows the time when the market turned from the uptrend and migration of value upwards and ended the day as a reversal day.

As you can see, I am capturing the order flow information in several ways. The key, I have always believed,is to trade a mechanical discretionary method. My trading plan is still comprised of pictures I want to see completed before I pull the trigger. By seeing what "they" are doing now I can understand what will happen next on the balance of probabilities. Its simple if "they" are selling then the market will go down. How far? Until "they" start buying again. When will that happen? I don't know the "when" but I have a good Idea of the "WHEREs". I say "WHEREs" because I have identified areas where buyers can come in and it is in those areas where I would scale out.

In the picture you can see the market break and retrace to resistance and break and retrace to resistance and repeat. Whether your style is to take the first break and scale out at each support and then reload when you run out of bullets or to size up at the first break and then scale out until you can clearly see the trend is over can result in the same profitability.

Trading multiple contracts is important for profitability. With a small account trade a smaller contract but trade multiple contracts.


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