Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Jedi is or Jedi Ain't

Well, to use a Star Wars analogy, the force was certainly not there today. The market was waiting and waiting and waiting for news today with sideways chop. I squeezed out a few ticks, Kiki got a a few less as she had an extra losing trade.

You can only take what the market gives. On days like this  there can be a tendancy to force trades. Forced trades are losing trades. I need to feel the wind behind my trade or I won't put it on. It has taken a long time to develop the discipline to keep out when there is nothing to do. If you look at the trades today, they were all entered at about the same price. That tells the whole story. The MP really is what protected us today. As the structure developed it was clear that for there to be any real money made today, there had to be a breakout and another distribution. It's dinner time here in London that didn't happen, so the trading day for us is done.

Unless there is some major news overnight or tomorrow, we'll get more of the same with Turkey Day in the U.S. on Thursday. We are not going to trade Thursday or Friday unless the Dow Euro 50 on Eurex shows signs of life in the mornings. I hope to post some thoughts on those days anyway.

Click to englarge


  1. Nice trading on a slow day after the first hour. From time to time, it will be great if you can share one of the "Why the difference" columns, which is likely to be very educational. As you well know, two traders trading the same methodology can post widely differing results. Your commentary on the differences is likely to very illuminating, especially if it is related to the mental aspects of the game - (that is if Kiki has no objection)

  2. Would you mind posting your MP chart with your reference lines on it for this days action so that we can extraploate what you are talking about when you say "The MP really is what protected us today"


  3. I am looking at your first trade and noticed that the 5 tick range chart that your arrow says you entered on did not tick at 1107.50 (since it ends at 1107) and your first scale out exit on the trade shows an exit at 1109.50 yet the high for that swing up was 1109.25. Please clarify...

  4. Geo, I'll post some comprables soon. I just didn't want to put any extra mental pressure on Kiki so far.
    be the ball, I'll do that over Thanksgiving as the market will probably be very quiet, at least in the afternoons.
    Anonymous, well spotted. A typo on the entry which was 1107.00 and I automatically added my 2 handle first scale which was 1109.00 not 1109.50. I corrected the spreadsheet. I am looking at another program that I can use my volume indicators with and that supports chart trading so I don't have the extra work of putting the trades onto the charts. Spreadsheet is corrected.

  5. Hi Tom,

    as far as I saw, you use 2 point per default for the first scale. How did you get this value? Is it statistics, a certain risk strategy in general or just experience?

  6. My first 2 point scale is a statistical thing in that I back tested and a very high percentage of my entries make it to plus 2 points. This is a functionality of volatility. During the crazy time of last year the number was much bigger. The money management rules are part of my trade plan and include adjustment for volatility.