Wednesday, 16 December 2009

Let's Talk About Trades

Today's first trade was a late entry - deliberately. The ES was going sideways and we waited for a breakout confirmation even though we saw the BUY orders coming in. An aggressive entry would have been at the previous green bar. I was concerned of a trap after seeing the market had retraced from the low of 1103.00 before yesterday's RTH close. The late entry cost $187.50 per 3 contracts. Not sure if it was worth it.

I delayed my first scale out as it was obvious that the breakout from the coil would go more than 2 points. We first sold at the top of the Keltner and previous VAH when resistance showed up and we were seeing a doji forming 20 minutes into that candle. Due to the lower volume outside of RTH, trading is a little different early in the day. The second trade really did not go far, just enough to give us a few points.

The spreadsheet showing the trades has changed format due to us using MSA. We need a format that can be imported. I'm still playing with this and it may change again. As soon as we have enough trades in MSA, I may show a screen shot of that instead.



  1. Tom,
    I see that you entered Trade #2 just prior to RTH open. Are you able to judge what the order flow surge in likely to be on the open based on the pre-open volume pattern despite the lower liquidity at that time? I would have waited for the opening range to shape up. TIA. I think I can trade exactly like this. However I have to wait till EOD. If only I can find a broker to take my orders for the past session, I will have it made. Pesky right edge.

  2. Geo, yes, I often can. A lpt depends on the gap and the prior order flow. I believe in my method and rely on it.

  3. Tom, I would like to discuss a kind of live example.

    I just went short on the FESX around 9:30 your time at 2009. The Volume Breakdown indicator showed buying coming in and I was tempted to get out, but as it broke the low of the next range bar, suddenly selling was there.

    What I would like to ask is how you act in those situations after the entry.

    Still I would say that more buying orders get filled, but price moves slowly in my direction.

    Thanks & Cheers

  4. Sorry, the short on the march contract was 2909 of course...

    One more question in terms of data again: Have you ever used DTN IQ and how would you compare it to Esignal?


  5. timokrates, I am always looking at the momentum, in my case the 2 CCIs. The VB will tell you what is happening with orders in that bar. The CVD may lag. But on the other hand, it does not matter as I am scaling out and at the worst, I take some profit there but leave the rest.

    I haven't used DTNIQ but am told its great. There is an eSignal DATA MANAGER ONLY that costs about the same (its not advertised so you have to ask for it).