Today's first trade was a late entry - deliberately. The ES was going sideways and we waited for a breakout confirmation even though we saw the BUY orders coming in. An aggressive entry would have been at the previous green bar. I was concerned of a trap after seeing the market had retraced from the low of 1103.00 before yesterday's RTH close. The late entry cost $187.50 per 3 contracts. Not sure if it was worth it.
I delayed my first scale out as it was obvious that the breakout from the coil would go more than 2 points. We first sold at the top of the Keltner and previous VAH when resistance showed up and we were seeing a doji forming 20 minutes into that candle. Due to the lower volume outside of RTH, trading is a little different early in the day. The second trade really did not go far, just enough to give us a few points.
The spreadsheet showing the trades has changed format due to us using MSA. We need a format that can be imported. I'm still playing with this and it may change again. As soon as we have enough trades in MSA, I may show a screen shot of that instead.
I delayed my first scale out as it was obvious that the breakout from the coil would go more than 2 points. We first sold at the top of the Keltner and previous VAH when resistance showed up and we were seeing a doji forming 20 minutes into that candle. Due to the lower volume outside of RTH, trading is a little different early in the day. The second trade really did not go far, just enough to give us a few points.
The spreadsheet showing the trades has changed format due to us using MSA. We need a format that can be imported. I'm still playing with this and it may change again. As soon as we have enough trades in MSA, I may show a screen shot of that instead.
Tom,
ReplyDeleteI see that you entered Trade #2 just prior to RTH open. Are you able to judge what the order flow surge in likely to be on the open based on the pre-open volume pattern despite the lower liquidity at that time? I would have waited for the opening range to shape up. TIA. I think I can trade exactly like this. However I have to wait till EOD. If only I can find a broker to take my orders for the past session, I will have it made. Pesky right edge.
Geo, yes, I often can. A lpt depends on the gap and the prior order flow. I believe in my method and rely on it.
ReplyDeleteTom, I would like to discuss a kind of live example.
ReplyDeleteI just went short on the FESX around 9:30 your time at 2009. The Volume Breakdown indicator showed buying coming in and I was tempted to get out, but as it broke the low of the next range bar, suddenly selling was there.
What I would like to ask is how you act in those situations after the entry.
Still I would say that more buying orders get filled, but price moves slowly in my direction.
Thanks & Cheers
Sorry, the short on the march contract was 2909 of course...
ReplyDeleteOne more question in terms of data again: Have you ever used DTN IQ and how would you compare it to Esignal?
Thanks.
timokrates, I am always looking at the momentum, in my case the 2 CCIs. The VB will tell you what is happening with orders in that bar. The CVD may lag. But on the other hand, it does not matter as I am scaling out and at the worst, I take some profit there but leave the rest.
ReplyDeleteI haven't used DTNIQ but am told its great. There is an eSignal DATA MANAGER ONLY that costs about the same (its not advertised so you have to ask for it).