Tuesday, 1 June 2010

What Does CP Mean in Practice?

I had a great question from a reader of the blog, a question that I assumed was superfluous until I really thought about it. I then realised what a great question it was and how important the answer was.

The question was:
I was just wondering how you quantify CP.

Does that mean most weeks and every month should be green? Every week?

You mentioned once that Kiki was having consistently green weeks, does that mean every week is green or just most of them.

I am asking for specifics because I don't want to have any false ideas about what is possible.
Firstly, anything is possible, both good and bad. I don't have to explain to you all how difficult it is to become consistently profitable. We all know.

So, OK, what does it mean to be Consistently Profitable? I went online to the dictionaries to see what they said about "consistently". It was not a lot of help until I went to the merriam webster dictionary. My usual Oxford was not helpful enough. The m-w said:

Main Entry: con·sis·tent
Pronunciation: \kən-ˈsis-tənt\
Function: adjective
Etymology: Latin consistent-, consistens, present participle of consistere
Date: 1638
1 archaic : possessing firmness or coherence
2 a : marked by harmony, regularity, or steady continuity : free from variation or contradiction style in painting> b : marked by agreement : compatible —usually used with with c : showing steady conformity to character, profession, belief, or custom
3 : tending to be arbitrarily close to the true value of the parameter estimated as the sample becomes large

If you become CP, you will be the first to know.  You will be more relaxed and the trades will flow.  our reactions to the markets will be carried out automatically.  You will think think and plan in the background but when the time comes to act, you will without fear or second guessing yourself.
Now that is all well and good. But in our society we have a need to quantify everything so we have it in black and white, no grey (gray) areas.  If it's "X" then I'm CP but if it's "X-1" then I'm not?  No, It's not that clear cut.  If you are making money regularly and steadily then you are CP.

Putting numbers on CP is not black and white.  It is different for each trader as we all trade different time frames and with different time frames comes a different number on trades every month.  So with a view to putting some perspective on the matter and by way of example.  This is not hard and fast.  What I replied to the reader was, 

The short answer is that for me, if I am trading say 7 or more times a day, to be CP I must be profitable every week and probably most days.  Does that mean that you never have a unprofitable week? No! Stuff happens and I can imagine due to lack of focus, something going on in life, exceptional market situations, there can be an unprofitable week every now and then.

If I was trading only once or twice a day or less, then to be CP, I need to be profitable monthly with the came caveats as above.

If anyone has any other ideas, I'd love to hear them.  

Charts back tomorrow trading with "Flo" today.


  1. Tom........nice line:

    "If you become CP, you will be the first to know. You will be more relaxed and the trades will flow. our reactions to the markets will be carried out automatically."

    i like this idea:

    "When you have found your niche, you dont need discipline to do the right things; you won't want to do anything else."


  2. Great question indeed!
    I would not quantify it here. Every one needs to do his own maths. Quantifying can only be done based on the premise that you have set a goal. But here is the goal to be consistently profitable. So my take is:
    if you make trades (systematicly or randomly) in a specified period of time (specified by you) and the result of your activity is more money than what you had started with, and you can repeat it over and over again at any time you wish to (need to), then you are consistently profitable.

  3. Hi,Tom,
    It is interesting. Sounded you were talking about Zen. I agree that,as your said,the relevant bit was the "marked by harmony, regularity or steady continuity".
    CP, more important, is a situation of a trader's mind and action. CP results are not important. Because a CP situation will always lead to CP results.
    It is a situation that is hard to achieve and to tell. It is similar to "trade in the zone","peak performance" or "trade with flow".
    You don't know it until you have it.
    I don't have it. Hopefully, I can get more enlightening from you.
    I appreciate.