Tuesday, 7 December 2010

That Gap Trade at Eurex and then .....

Traders looking for a market to trade from about GMT 7.00 could do a lot worse than looking at the Dow Euro 50 (FESX or ESTX50). There are similar trades available as on the ES, but usually you have more time to make your decision when it's trading out of the ES RTH. Volume is fantastic and bid/ask is in the 100s and 1000s.

The Gap trade today, as I teach it, was again right on the money and there was plenty of time to do it. You could even do it twice if you were only after 10 tics and not waiting for a Gap close. Or you could have re-sold what you had scaled out the first time down. There are several good ways of managing this trade. The Picture tells the story.

Being prepared for what unfolds is part of what is required. It's very easy to have a Gap close mindset or a some other bias. The envisioning that I advocate relies on looking at the previous day's close and what happened between that close and the now. Being wrong doesn't matter, because if you are wrong you can work out what's right. The stock market has been very bullish going into this Santa Clause rally and although I was happy to sell it, as there is usually a Gap close attempt, I was ready for the turn around. Had the market failed at my original sell point a third time, I would have had to conclude that my vision was wrong and that the price was really headed south. I trade the trend of the chart I am trading, not some big picture remote from that.

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