Wednesday, 14 December 2011

Going with Flo, More and More

I create my algos by going through a fairly easy process. It's not easy to create a good algo, but having a process makes it easier.


I start with an idea. Eyeball the charts. Then I make a simple strategy to run in TradeStation or MultiCharts. If it looks promising, I refine it. I then run an optimisation. Below is one such result.


In addition to the rows of numbers, I draw your attention to the comment circled in red that the algo is a good candidate for Walk Forward Analysis. This is a TradeStation result and TS can produce WFO files to do the WF.  After running the WFO, TS examines the result and creates a test. This is what it's result looks like.




Looking further into the WFO results, I can look at lots of stats including the ones below.




Once I am happy and I lock in the inputs to use based on the WFO, I can look at the stats for the historical performance of the chosen inputs.






Looking at the Equity Curve, I can see a couple of dips.


As this algo will run as part of a portfolio of markets, I'm not concerned about the dips as I have accepted the draw downs flagged by the results.


In the coming year, I will be relying more and more on my fully auto algos. I can get some good diversification with proper money management and believe that I'll work less and earn more.

3 comments:

  1. Hi, what minimum level of Profit factor would you consider the system usable, assuming all other statistics are okay?

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  2. Hi EL,

    I thought you liked high win ratios (70% or better). These algos have win ratios less than 50%. What changed?

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  3. Both great questions! I'm going to answer both these questions in a post tomorrow, Thursday as a short answer here wouldn't be enough.

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