Tuesday, 21 February 2012


Well, the politicians have lived up to my expectations by squeezing Greece into an impossible situation. There is no way that Greece can continue to comply with the conditions it is being pushed into, IMO. Looks like the Euro politicians are buying time to get past elections and maybe to toughen up the Euro system. The way that this is going, it makes more sense for Greece to withdraw from the Euro. I can't see how else they can survive. They badly need to default to wipe out the debt, devalue their currency to make themselves more than competitive and to be able to feed the people who are left there. Greece is seeing the same thing as happened in Ireland - the young and able leaving in droves for other countries. Oz has one of the biggest Greek migrant communities and will benefit from that drain.

I'm still surprised that the stock markets are so strong. I guess it's money becoming worth less, day by day. But what will happen as earnings retreat when the Chinese and Indian markets slow down more? I'm still trying to find a spot to buy back the gold I stupidly sold around $880. I just couldn't resist that $500+ profit. Core holdings should stay core holdings unless there is something more compelling than being right in price direction.

We're working hard on beginning the daily pre-advice of my potential trades so that people can learn by following along. I'm shooting for a March start but there is some programming needed to take the load of manual labour. The tweeting of intraday trades is more of a pain as it's quite distracting for me, but I'm working on automating that too.

My Euro chart shows the story. Just grinding it out. Identify the trend and trade the pullbacks.


  1. Tom,
    I have tried your methodology and I cannot get filled on the pullbacks using tick, range or momentum bars. Any advice?

  2. Anon 01:23, It has to be your range bar settings or you are waiting too long after a bar close. If the range bars overlap then you must be able to get filled unless you are waiting too long. I can understand missing some fills with renko manual trading but not range bars. Yes, you may misss one now and then. Also, you can anticipate the closing of the range bar because once it looks like one end is fixed, you know at what price the other end will close.

  3. Anon/Tom,

    I've found the best way to get filled is to place orders before the bar closes. I have an indicator that marks on my chart where the next renko or range bar close will be. I place my order there before the bar closes. My fill rate has increased from about 70% to over 90% on .75-ES renko bars when I place my order before the bar closes. I don't have data on range bars because I'm not trading with them right now, but I believe it would also significantly improve range bar fill rates.