Thursday, 19 June 2014

Just Take the Surest Trades

Lots of traders sit in front of their workstations grinding it out, averaging, say, $4 a trade. Others look for better trades looking to have an average trade of $200 or more.

Both ways work. It's just that one is a lot more labour intensive. My Dad taught me from a young age to use brain not brawn. It took a lot of years to understand how that relates to trading. If the average winning trade is too small then a large loser will wipe out too many winners. Trading is a matter of math and the math has to work.

Using Flo, I have a good handle on the math. My backtesting, while no guarantee, gives me a strong reference of what I can expect going forward. If a picture has an 80% probability and the trade location is correct then my expectation of an average profit larger than $200 can lead to the correct trade profile to be CP.

The trade below is one such picture. The trade is an Outside In trade with the exit at the EMA, a mean reversion trade.

My Flobot trades are a reflection of what I do as a discretionary trader, taking the "best" trades.


  1. Hello Kiki,

    I hope this finds you well. Tell your dad I said hi.

    There is a little irony in how things have progressed with you guys.
    I have re-written some of his (yours) original About to reflect what I mean.

    "Dad, I want to learn to trade. I’m tired of working so hard making other people lots of money. Do you think I can do what you do?".

    "Kiki, I want to learn to program. I’m tired of working so hard making lots of money. Do you think I can do what you do?".


    Be well,


  2. Brilliant!!

    I believe you once said CCI 45/6 (or something similar) was "written in stone".. Sunce then, I've seen several other long CCI's.. Can you elaborate on what spurred the change, how you determine new settings etc? What tells you it's time to change?

    Are both the slow and fast CCIs considered in this algo (slow moving out of oversold, fast crossing zero)?

    Does this algo use both the CCIs and the stochs in the logic?

    Jolly good!!

    1. Was it James Bond that said: "Never say "never"". The bigCCI is to define trend. When it crosses the zero line too often then its not doing its job. shortCCI identifies the pullbacks.

      No, the stochastic has nothing to do with the algo. I put it into the picture for you guys to see the cyclicality. Maybe its just confusing.

  3. jenriquw42

    como va tu libro sobre market profile? le falta mucho para salir?

  4. Can you give a litHle more detail on how you determine the trend with the big CCI - Is it whether or not it's above/below? Or whether it's rising or falling? Is big CCI overbought/oversold a factor in this algo?

    Thank you!

    1. Yes, simply whether it is above and stays above zero, not chopping above and below.