Wednesday, 3 September 2014

Regular Stops are Dangerous to my Wealth

Using anything but a drop dead stop would cost me a lot of money. A tight stop assumes that I know where the market is going in the future rather than working on the basis of the mathematics and probabilities. Discretionary trading is the finding of moments when the trader can see what is happening with order flow and can therefore deduce what happens next. Deduction is not prediction! If I see that the buyer is in control then I KNOW that the price must move up as supply at existing prices is removed. Its as simple as that. The next challenge is to see when the buyer stops buying. Exhaustion. When he stops buying there are two possibilities: selling comes in and the price goes down or sideways chop as no one does much. Putting am arbitrary stop loss that gets taken out by the normal oscillations of the market is not the way to deal with this information.

My trading is far from perfect but I make money when I stick to my plan which is based on my testing. I lose when I do something impulsive.

Trade management is critical to CP. It's the maths.

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