Monday, 24 January 2022

Experience can just mean making the same mistakes with increasing confidence.

 Yes, experience can just mean making the same mistakes with increasing confidence. This seems to be the underlying cause of why instead of CP, traders are consistently unprofitable.

As these markets evolve, I am continually tweaking my trading plan. The basis of what I trade is order flow. We have had the tools to see order flow in the futures markets for some time and I still wonder why the majority of retail traders don't seem to use this information. I look at YouTube and see hundreds if not thousands of videos of people showing how to trade profitably. However, examining many of these ideas I see its mostly making the same mistakes with increasing confidence.

I spent a day on the week-end just back testing the tweaks that I proposed implementing to my trading plan. Getting very specific information from deep back testing of the recent past gives me the information I need to make changes as the volatility and market rhythms change.

The big take away for the last months has been that stops have to be further away for my style of trading, especially for the NQ. Had I not moved stops to the second resistance instead of the first and cut my size, I would have had many red days instead of green.

Chart below is about an hour or so before RTH NQ. I'm done for the day after about 2 hours of trading. My stops were up tp 25 points, not ticks, from entries. I used 30 second bars so I have enough time to make decisions. I also have some automation so I don't need to be so fast.

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