Saturday, 5 June 2010

Monday Could be Opportunity Day

I don't usually do this but I thought a "heads up" might be useful. This is not a recommendation to trade - all the disclaimers apply. Take out your SIMs and see what you can achieve. This post is for educational purposes only.

Monday may be a great opportunity for making better trades more easily in both the ES and the 6E (Euro FX future). The two markets have a number of things in common after Friday's action:
  • both are at "new" lows
  • both had a trend day down
  • both have great support and resistance levels all over the place. I'm not going to be specific because that's not worth anything to you. Finding your own S and R will give you the necessary belief in them. Whether you use the Profile (my first choice) or the range bar chart, if you highlight all the areas where you want to do business and areas where you would not want to open a position, Monday may teach you how well this stuff can be applied in these changing times with the right prep and visioning. 
Whatever timezone you are trading in, by the time you sit down in front of your computer, you will have looked at the news and commentary from Fri/Sat/Sun and have a bullish or bearish bias. Then, sitting down in front of your PC, marking the areas I have spoken about ad nauseum in the blog, you can think of the possibilities. Not only those that fit your bias but those that may happen if you have it all upside down or if the plunge protection society comes in or if the hedge funds decide to push the market to new depths. Have three scenarios: Up, Down and sideways. This way you can deal with whatever comes up.

I wish Great Trading to you all, in SIM of course.


  1. Hi EL.

    I woke up today ready to go. MP all marked up. Charts ready. Will I trade live or sim?

    Before I was due to start at 7AM London I picked up Tharp "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom"...and read the words..."I've talked about the representative bias in the sense that people tend to judge something by what it "looks like" as apposed to its probability bias"...Have you considered probability rate information in developing your system".

    And I said to myself "Woa there Nelly"...Here's the root of your trading issues moving from successful sim to cash. You just want to get "there" to CP as fast as possible; taking short cuts to get there.

    I've read the blog more than twice (655 pages of it) made notes, reviewed charts, successfully simmed an few hours. But have I done what the blog says. Not all. No. One step is I need to backtest "up the wazoo" the set ups. (Another is I need to complete a revised Trading Plan...nearly done but not finished).

    PATIENCE and following the steps (and I guess also discipline too reflected in doing that, "being" that) they're two of my core issues.

    Looking forward to the course EL. Guess I want to be as far down the track as I can. I must be careful or my shortcuts may end up taking me the LONG WAY there!

    Today I will backtest; work on my plan and may sim the RTH open to "keep my hand in". There will be another day like this.

    Cheers, Bondi9

  2. Hi,Tom,

    This is a highly instructive post.
    Hopefully you can provide more in the future.


  3. So how'd I do.

    Failed at the back testing in the platform I am using for that(can't get EL's indicators into the strategy). Professional help needed there. So i did it again the hard way and went through all the charts I had printed out. Especially the ones with market profile so I where I could compare the entries to context.

    Then traded the open 1.5 hrs ES. Two goes at the short Inside Out off the 33 EMA at 1065.50 & then 1065.75...both were also a close below the VAL of an upper distribution I split of the over night session. Lost 8 ticks on the 1st and made 9 on the second. Missed the Outside long in at 1062.75 at 9:48 as I still had my 3rd contract short and I was not even looking for it. I was looking at the single prints below. It was really the exit signal for that 3rd contract. Then missed the easy Inside Out long at the 33 EMA at 1065 at 9:51. Again I still had my 3rd contract and was agonizing over whether to bail and over the fact I had left it on the table. Went long in the chop after two up bars supported by VD and momentum when we closed inside of Fridays VAL at 1069.50- Exited when we closed back below it. Then almost immediately shorted at 1067.25 Inside Out. 1st target +2 pts, exited the 1st at +7 ticks (fear of not making anything after my last stop out). 2nd contract ran to 63.50 or just under 4 pts and ahead of the start of the single prints from Friday. Ran the last down the "zipper" as EL calls it to 59.25.

    Result 5 trades..3 wins...2 loses...2 missed trades. $525.00 before bro and $450 net.

    Target I have set myself in my plan at this point is to 1/3 rd of what EL makes per 3 cons or $500. Just shy but close enough for me.