Tuesday, 6 July 2010

Turned it from Outside in to Inside out

My vision this morning was 100% wrong. I still ended up green on the day.

My morning started with the Dow Euro 50 and I got it all wrong. I sold the market. Outside in. It was a good idea at the time? No! I don't think I normally misread this badly. I think my personal bias and greed got the better of me.

Anyway, it happens and you have to get over it and re-think. It was difficult to buy the ESTX50 when the market was so over bought, but buy it I did.

I had a fleeting doubt when I sold at 2538. Price had bounced off yesterday's POC and I thought to myself: "Hey, this could scream up", and then my bias took over. I paid the price but bought the market and redeemed my day.

Normally, buying the highs like this is a newbie error and a reaction to being stopped out by a stop loss that was too close due to the trade location of the original trade being a bad location too far from resistance. The newbie gets stopped, thinks he's wrong turns it around and it goes 2 or 3 ticks and then tanks in the original direction of his first trade.

What happened today is not that. Today, the ES was bought during the Asian hours and it came into the European timezone up. The logical first trade is to fade the move against resistance when the momentum turns. That's what I did. When the resistance was taken out AND its clear that the flow was buying, I HAD to turn it around with a logical area where I had to bail out of the long as being a fake continuation. If that price was too far away, I had to pass on the trade.

When entering a trade, I always have an idea - nothing written in stone - of what I would need to see for me to realize I was wrong. In moves like today, it all takes place quite quickly. All the work in SIM pays off big time when you need to react.

Gap trade didn't work today. The sale was against the top of the Profile tail at 1033.00. It really didn't look like it would retrace to Friday's close but I was hoping for 5 handles. As it turned out, I didn't get another trade until the move topped and I could sell 1034.75 on the way down.


  1. Tom: During your upcoming training program you mentioned that you will be trading different instruments. We know you like 5 tick range bar on ES and 9 on 6E.
    I wonder if you would be willing to let us know what is the ideal range bar setting for you on the following futures contracts. TF, YM, 6A, 6B, 6C and CL. Thanks in advance!

  2. Anon, you need to see a smooth chart with the least noise. I want the bars to be around half what my risk per contract would be, not that I use a hard stop of 2 bars because I don't. Try that foir a start and then fine tune it to suit your style and risk but mainly to see a nice looking flow.