Thursday, 24 February 2011

The "Oyl Bidness"

I loved J.R. I remember when the world stopped to watch Dallas on TV. Mixing Oil and the glamour of America's rich was a great formula. I saw it in action in real life too. In early 1971 I was in Denver and had dinner in the Brown Palace Club and the place was filled with the oil elite of the day.

There is said to be plenty of oil, yet we are paying £1.29 per litre here in London, about $USD7.92 per gallon. Yes, $7.92. One of my cars is a Mercedes ML500 and it costs over $170 to fill it up. It was only 11 years ago that I used to fill up my daughters' Toyota Echo in the States for $10.

I was driving through Spain in the early 1970's (1973?) when the oil crisis started. I had bought a BMW in Switzerland to drive around Europe. I pulled up at a petrol (gas) station to fill up one evening, somewhere on the South East coast. I did not have any pesetas, the Spanish currency at that time, and told the garage guy that I wanted to pay with U.S. Dollars. I received a very firm "Non". The dollar at that time was falling and this guy didn't want anything to do with it - the world's reserve currency. It was scary.

The world is getting scary again. Information is moving at the speed of thought. People are reacting to news instantly as markets are there 24x6.

The new normal is like a website that is "Under Construction". Opportunity is not just knocking, it is banging the door down.

If you wanted to trade today's Gap trade on the ES then you would have had to start earlier than RTH because it was all over by then. Luckily I'm here in Europe and recognised the beginning of the Gap close. Basically, the Gap had an 80% chance of 50% closing according to my back testing so I did not have much of a risk being early. As you can see, Flo was on the ball and made sure I didn't miss the opportunity.


  1. Tom,
    Getting closer every day to CP. Hopefully I can get to multiple contracts before too long. I see how using different number range bars can help see the picture better. Here is my chart from today.

  2. Thanks to your explanation of the "Zipper", I made sure to get in early and ride the Zipper all the way up ... It was clear to me on both a bar and range chart and by looking at my volume profile that there was not much standing in the way of the fill. Thanks.