Saturday 23 August 2014

The Evolution Continues - Market Profile + Volume


I'm still fine tuning my chart. The original Market Profile is unchanged - splitting the Profile into distributions is what is important. The bar chart is being tweaked as I find settings in MarketDelta that give me more information. The new concepts of Pete Steidlmayer have proven to be quite revolutionary when translated into the functionality available in MarketDelta. My new normal allows me to track order flow intimately just like we did in the pits - perhaps even more closely.

The chart below uses a volume breakout bar with the order flow bars: Volume Imbalance. A new bar is created when
 
The range of the bar is determined once the volume level specified is achieved. Then when price breaks out of this range a new bar is formed.

The whole chart is very volume related and very visual. The way I think when I trade has returned to the way that I thought when I was on the floor - which way is the order flow and how strong is it? My win rate is pretty high and as I get more screen time with this chart I'm confident that my average profit size will grow - this was my goal in making the change to my charts. The "was" works pretty well but the new normal will more than double my average profit per trade, trades like buying the low area on the bar chart and selling it at the expected target at the magenta line when order flow lost it's power.



9 comments:

  1. The file referenced in: "Blog Summary up to 23 Feb 2010" is not available.
    Any chance it could be re-uploaded so that we can access it?

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  2. Marketdelta puts out some amazing stuff. I have been looking at Peter's 12/9 split in the time brackets. Had limited success. VB appears to give quicker signals for changing market sentiment. What kind of settings do you like using VB chart for CL?

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    1. I think that Pete's issue is that he's still using TPOs. I think using volume directly is better. The charts The periodicity of the chart is not so important.anymore. Its what is happening with the order flow that matters. The periodicity has to be slow enough so I have time to react but not too slow that I get in too late.

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  3. Hi EL, I notice you day-trade the Dax. I also day-trade this and am curious what stop distance you would advise (in points)? I typically use a 20pt stop under normal volatility conditions.

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    1. I don't use stop losses. Stops cause unnecessary losses. Win rate and profitability increases when you exit only when your trade is wrong not because some arbitrary reversal took place before the market goes in my direction.

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    2. Sorry, I didn't phrase the question correctly. I meant what would your "uncle" point be on a more volatile index like the Dax.

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    3. Usually my Drop dead stop for the DAX is 65 points

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  4. Hi EL, One thing I noticed about the volume profile you show within each bar is that the widest profile (most volume) always fills up the width of the bar. I think this gives a partially distorted impression that all bars had at least one price level with the same amount of volume when that is typically not the case. I think it reveals more if you can make the software draw the volume profile so that they are all relative to each other. In other words, if one bar had a price level whose max volume was 100 contracts and another bar had a max price level of 200 contracts, the volume profile on the first bar should look only half as wide as the second bar. Just my opinion, but to me it visually gives a better feel for where 'they' are really doing stuff. Does MarketDelta have a way to do this?

    I am really looking forward to your book. Hope to see it soon(?) :)

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    1. Yes, there is Footprint Bar Statistics. It's not visual but provides the metrics bar by bar.

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